THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 6-2-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Crude sits around $91 (-1%). Brent sits around $93 (-1%).
- Increased geopolitical tensions are on hold as reports out of Tehran surface that a formal peace proposal from the US is being reviewed.
- Global production is on the rise as a result of this conflict and
- Natgas falls for the 2nd straight day as weather charts shift cooler.
- The market made it very clear that bullish upward movement isn't here just yet after rejecting a move towards $3.40 yesterday.
- Production drops just as we started seeing bearish momentum and we can expect underwhelming storage injections to continue.
NYMEX
July '26 – Open = $3.19, High = $3.22, Low = $3.09, Current = $3.15
- +$0.18 from 1 week ago
- -$0.55 from 1 year ago
- +$0.47 from 2 years ago
- 50-day avg = $2.83
- 20-day avg = $2.95
- 9-day avg = $3.08
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $322 (R2) = $3.35 BREAKOUT = $3.40+ PIVOT = $3.08 SUPPORT = (S1) = $3.00 (S2) = $2.94
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (July '26 Start) = $3.41
- Summer '26 (July – Oct) = $3.20
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $3.88
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.18
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.24
- Calendar '27 = $3.50
- Calendar '28 = $3.76
- Calendar '29 = $3.74
- Calendar '30 = $3.68
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year – thru May '26
- 2026 = $4.15
- 2025 = $3.45
- 2024 = $2.26
- 2023 = $2.73
- 2022 = $6.64
- 2021 = $3.84
- 2020 = $2.07
- 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
California prices continue to tighten up as summer supply and demand concerns grow, along with pipeline maintenance season nearing.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $2.309
- 2025 avg = $3.568
- 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $3.195
- 2025 avg = $3.891
- 2026 Transco Z5 South FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $6.45
- 2025 avg = $3.608
Key Market Data
- LNG EXPORTS = 17.8Bcf, -3.3% w/w
- MEXICO EXPORTS = 7.5Bcf
- CANADIAN IMPORTS = 5.5Bcf
- DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 107.5Bcf, +0.3% y/y
- SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 113.5Bcf
- DEMAND – Today's Est.= 99.9Bcf
- 7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Moderate
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Severe storms for the N. Plains, South/Gulf with clear skies for most everyone else.
- 6-10 Day = Bullish
- 8-14 Day = Bullish
- 3-4 Week = Even
- June – Aug = Bullish
- July – Sep = Bullish
- Aug – Oct = Even
Regional Weather
- NE/Mid-Atlantic = Increasing CDDs later today. 60s-50s.
- SE/Gulf = Pleasant temps and storms limit CDDs today. 80s-60s.
- Texas/S. Plains = Bullish CDDs w/storms capping load. 90s-70s.
- West/SW = CoC weather with heat in the SW corner. 100s-50s.
- Pac NW/N. Plains = Short-lived CDDs with clear skies to the west. 80s-40s.
- Mid-Con = Little to no CDDs today. 80s-50s.
RIG COUNT as of 5-29-26
- Total = 562, +4 w/w
- Oil @ 429 rigs, +4 w/w
- Natural Gas @ 125 rigs, no change w/w
- Miscellaneous @ 8 rigs, no change w/w
- Rig count 1 year ago = 563
STORAGE – 6-4-26
- Estimate = +98Bcf. Actual = TBD
- Last year = +100Bcf
- 5-yr avg = +97Bcf
- Storage levels are +21Bcf compared to this time last year
- Storage levels are +144Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 2,339Bcf
- At 2,483Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range
- Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 3.9Tcf. 3-31-27 @ 1.7Tcf to 2.0Tcf
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
- NatGas = 39-42%
- Nuclear = 18-19%
- Coal = 14-16%
- Hydro = 5-7%
- Wind = 10-13%
- Solar = 8-10%
Power Pricing
- kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1392. Resi = $0.1883.
REAL TIME POWER (MW) PRICING RANGE on 6-2-26
- CAISO = -$45 - $18
- WEIM = -$5 - $5
- SPP = -$10 - $25
- ERCOT = $5 - $40
- MISO = $10 - $25
- PJM = -$80 - $200
CRUDE
- 2026 = $85.60
- 2027 = $75.13
- 2028 = $70.90
- 2029 = $68.09
THE BOTTOM LINE
Today's market looks like it's a "technical stabilization test" (thanks to trader J.C. for that quote). Basically, the market doesn't have the bulls to push past $3.20 as long as LNG maintenance continues, ERCOT heat is met with solar supply, and the heatwaves that helped push prices last week are failing to show up. We're looking to lock up strips and months right now. We can lock NYMEX 12 months for under $3.50. Considering all the bulls that coming, you'll kill for that strip price in the future while we manage the AI bell curve. And TX. half, especially from