THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 6-1-26

June 1, 2026 by Sean Dookie

CDDs LNG exports NYMEX Natural Gas crude oil energy markets power generation storage technical analysis weather forecast

THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 6-1-26

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

Crude sits around $90 (+3%). Brent sits around $93 (+2%).
Renewed US-Iran military exchanges wiped out last week's "MoU" progress, allowing geopolitical bulls to return.
July is now prompt month and starts June with a $0.10 drop.
May gas prices finished nearly 20% higher m/m.
Storage stays above normal but smaller injections are a concern.
Technical resistance looks to be the biggest driver right now.
LNG is rebounding nicely, staying above 18Bcf consistently.
June heat will be an increasing risk when it comes to prices.
El Nino developing. Could strengthen to "Super El Nino" by Q4.
ERCOT and PJM concerned with elevated grid stress this week.

NYMEX

July '26 – Open = $3.33, High = $3.39, Low = $3.17, Current = $3.18

+$0.40 from 1 week ago
-$0.11 from 1 year ago
+$0.15 from 2 years ago

Averages:

50-day avg = $2.83
20-day avg = $2.90
9-day avg = $3.02

Technical Levels:

RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.33 (R2) = $3.50
BREAKOUT = $3.50+
PIVOT = $3.16
SUPPORT = (S1) = $3.12 (S2) = $2.98

NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS

12 months (July '26 Start) = $3.43
Summer '26 (July – Oct) = $3.27
Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $3.83
Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.15
Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.21
Calendar '27 = $3.47
Calendar '28 = $3.73
Calendar '29 = $3.72
Calendar '30 = $3.66

NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year – thru May '26

2026 = $4.15
2025 = $3.45
2024 = $2.26
2023 = $2.73
2022 = $6.64
2021 = $3.84
2020 = $2.07
2019 = $2.62

BASIS

California prices increase significantly, wiping out almost all of the negative priced months.

2026 PG&E CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $2.309
2025 avg = $3.568
2026 SoCal CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $3.195
2025 avg = $3.891
2026 Transco Z5 South FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $6.45
2025 avg = $3.608

SUPPLY & DEMAND DATA

LNG EXPORTS = 18.5Bcf, +2.1% w/w
MEXICO EXPORTS = 7.0Bcf
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 5.0Bcf
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 110.6Bcf, +2.0% y/y
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 114.1Bcf
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 99.4Bcf
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Moderate

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS

Intense heat from SoCal to South Beach. Storms across the South/SE and N. Plains.

Forecast Periods:

6-10 Day = Bullish
8-14 Day = Bullish
3-4 Week = Even
June – Aug = Bullish
July – Sep = Bullish
Aug – Oct = Even

Regional Outlook:

NE/Mid-Atlantic = Increasing CDDs the further south you go. 70s-40s.
SE/Gulf = Lower CDDs where rain/clouds show up. 80s-70s.
Texas/S. Plains = Bullish heat and bearish rain, lack of solar. 90s-70s.
West/SW = Hot in the SW corner, solar helping out big. 100s-60s.
Pac NW/N. Plains = Cooler w/hydro keeping gas bearish. 80s-40s.
Mid-Con = CDDs looking to increase. 80s-50s.

RIG COUNT as of 5-29-26

Total = 562, +4 w/w
Oil @ 429 rigs, +4 w/w
Natural Gas @ 125 rigs, no change w/w
Miscellaneous @ 8 rigs, no change w/w
Rig count 1 year ago = 563

STORAGE – 6-4-26

Estimate = +98Bcf. Actual = TBD
Last year = +100Bcf
5-yr avg = +97Bcf
Storage levels are +21Bcf compared to this time last year
Storage levels are +144Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 2,339Bcf
At 2,483Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range
Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 3.9Tcf. 3-31-27 @ 1.7Tcf to 2.0Tcf

NATIONAL POWER GENERATION

NatGas = 39-41%
Nuclear = 18-19%
Coal = 14-16%
Hydro = 5-7%
Wind = 11-13%
Solar = 8-10%

kWh PRICE AVERAGE:

C&I = $0.1392
Resi = $0.1883

REAL TIME POWER (MW) PRICING RANGE on 6-1-26

CAISO = -$25 - $8
WEIM = -$1 - $5
SPP = -$7 - $25
ERCOT = -$93 - $17
MISO = $20 - $25
PJM = -$60 - $225

CRUDE PRICES

2026 = $87.08
2027 = $75.79
2028 = $70.64
2029 = $67.85

THE BOTTOM LINE

Natgas prices appear to be down today because of massive profit taking after a strong run up last week. Today's market looks more like a slight correction/consolidation (call it what you want) from last week's rally more than a bearish reversal to cheaper prices. Weather isn't extreme enough to keep prices up on its own, but that factor is ever lingering, reducing bearish sentiment.

Back to Market Intel