THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 5-7-26
May 7, 2026 by Sean Dookie
THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 5-7-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
• Crude and Brent are falling further. These commodities are bearish today but remain structurally tight as long as the war continues. • NYMEX gas prices start today down a few cents. • Basis in the West continues to tighten up – that means "increase". • Production continues to underperform but is balanced out by a drop in LNG exports volume. • The cooler than normal start to May has balanced out HDDs/CDDs but hotter weather is coming this weekend, spiking demand. • Bullish power demand for CAISO/ERCOT/PJM next week should push gas prices higher and traders are banking on it. • The massive storage injections that we anticipated as recently as 3 weeks ago are failing to show up.
NYMEX
June '26 – Open = $2.72, High = $2.73, Low = $2.67, Current = $2.69 +$0.02 from 1 week ago -$0.93 from 1 year ago +$0.47 from 2 years ago
50-day avg = $2.85 20-day avg = $2.66 9-day avg = $2.68
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $2.95 (R2) = $3.10 PIVOT = $2.65 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.60 (S2) = $2.40
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
12 months (June '26 Start) = $3.35 Summer '26 (June – Oct) = $2.97 Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $3.90 Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.18 Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.24 Calendar '27 = $3.52 Calendar '28 = $3.48 Calendar '29 = $3.68 Calendar '30 = $3.64
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year – 2026 thru May
2026 = $4.15 2025 = $3.45 2024 = $2.26 2023 = $2.73 2022 = $6.64 2021 = $3.84 2020 = $2.07 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through May '26) = $2.309 2025 avg = $3.568.
2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through May '26) = $3.195 2025 avg = $3.891.
2026 Transco Z5 South FoM Index avg (through May '26) = $6.45 2025 avg = $3.608.
SUPPLY & DEMAND DATA
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 17.7Bcf, -7.8% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.0Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 3.8Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 110.9Bcf, +5.5% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 111.7Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 103.4Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Moderate
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Severe weather threats continue for the Gulf region with tornado warnings still in effect. Heavy rain across the SE.
6-10 Day = Even 8-14 Day = Even 3-4 Week = Bearish
May – July = Bullish June – Aug = Even July – Sep = Bearish
NE/New England = Cooler temps w/some spots of rain. 50s-30s. Mid-Atlantic = Milder temps and rain keep CDDs to a minimum. 60s-40s. SE/Gulf = Lighter CDDs as strong storms roll through. 70s-50s. Texas/S. Plains = Clear skies for most with some rain on the coast. 70s-50s. West/SW = Heat building inland and SW corner. 90s-50s. Pac NW/N. Plains = Cooler with storms to the east. 70s-30s. Great Lakes = Cool temps with some rain. Bearish overall. 60s-40s.
RIG COUNT as of 5-1-26
Total = 547, +3 w/w. Oil @ 408 rigs, +1 w/w. Natural Gas @ 130 rigs, +1 w/w. Miscellaneous @ 9 rigs, + 1w/w. Rig count 1 year ago = 584.
STORAGE – 5-7-26
Estimate = +72Bcf. Actual = +63Bcf Last year = +108Bcf. 5-yr avg = +82Bcf. Storage levels are +75Bcf compared to this time last year. Storage levels are +139Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 2,066Bcf. At 2,205Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range. Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 3.9Tcf. 3-31-27 @ 1.7Tcf to 2.0Tcf
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
NatGas = 44% Nuclear = 18% Coal = 13% Hydro = 6% Wind = 11% Solar = 8% (peaks higher intraday)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1412. Resi = $0.1805.
REAL TIME POWER (MW) PRICING RANGE on 5-7-26
CAISO = -$89 - $170 ERCOT = $16 - $18 MISO = -$58 - $119 PJM = $28 - $65 NYISO = -$20 - 35 ISONE = $7 - $8
CRUDE
2026 = $83.66, 2027 = $71.29, 2028 = $70.25, 2029 = $67.21
THE BOTTOM LINE
All those negative priced months for SoCal CG and PG&E CG Basis are all but gone now as focus turns to Costa Azul LNG. Basis prices for those delivery points have increased roughly $0.70 over the past 3 weeks. Remember how we warn about holding out for the market to fall another $0.10 only to end up losing $0.50 when the market turns? Here's your example in live time.
FP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions, 310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie