THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 5-29-26

May 29, 2026 by Sean Dookie

THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 5-29-26

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

• Crude sits around $87 (-2%). Brent sits around $91 (-2%).
• A preliminary "Memorandum of Understanding" in the Middle East has oil prices falling a little further.
• new estimates form the "experts for 2026 show Brent averaging $90.44 and Crude averaging $84.63.
• Natgas rallied 6% yesterday after a bullish Storage Report.
• Prices hit their highest since early Feb '26, as high as $3.38
• We continue to see smaller than usual storage injections.
• Prices for May forecasted to be +19% after declining 4% in April.
• LNG exports returning to record levels.
• Power demand increasing throughout the southern half.
• Power grids are operating under historical strain today with PJM feeling the highest prices by far – take a look.

NYMEX

July '26 – Open = $3.29, High = $3.38, Low = $3.28, Current = $3.37

• +$0.40 from 1 week ago
• -$0.17 from 1 year ago
• +$0.85 from 2 years ago
• 50-day avg = $2.83
• 20-day avg = $2.90
• 9-day avg = $3.02

RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.35 (R2) = $3.50
PIVOT = $3.22
SUPPORT = (S1) = $3.12 (S2) = $2.98

NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS

• 12 months (July '26 Start) = $3.40
• Summer '26 (July – Oct) = $3.22
• Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $3.81
• Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.14
• Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.20
• Calendar '27 = $3.45 Calendar '28 = $3.72
• Calendar '29 = $3.71 Calendar '30 = $3.65

NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year – thru May '26

• 2026 = $4.15
• 2025 = $3.45
• 2024 = $2.26
• 2023 = $2.73
• 2022 = $6.64
• 2021 = $3.84
• 2020 = $2.07
• 2019 = $2.62

BASIS – Further tightening of prices in most regions.

• 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $2.309
  2025 avg = $3.568.
• 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $3.195
  2025 avg = $3.891.
• 2026 Transco Z5 South FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $6.45
  2025 avg = $3.608.

LNG EXPORTS = 18.5Bcf, +2.6% w/w.

MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.2Bcf.

CANADIAN IMPORTS = 4.1Bcf.

DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 110.4Bcf, +2.6% y/y.

SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 112.6Bcf.

DEMAND – Today's Est.= 97.7Bcf.

7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Moderate

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS

Severe storms throughout the N. Plains and Southeast. Hot & Dry in the West/SW.

6-10 Day = Bearish 8-14 Day = Bearish 3-4 Week = Bearish

June – Aug = Bullish July – Sep = Bullish Aug – Oct = Even

• NE/Mid-Atlantic = Falling CDDs, bearish weekend. 80s-50s.
• SE/Gulf = Lower CDDs where rain/clouds show up. 80s-70s.
• Texas/S. Plains = Heat not as extreme today but staying warmer than normal overnight. 90s-70s.
• West/SW = Cool & dry w/ bullish power burn showing up next week. 70s-50s.
• Pac NW/N. Plains = Cooler than normal to the west, hot to the east. 90s-40s.
• Mid-Con = Starting out comfortable with building CDDs. 80s-60s.

RIG COUNT as of 5-22-26:

• Total = 558, +7 w/w.
• Oil @ 425 rigs, +10 w/w.
• Natural Gas @ 125 rigs, -3 w/w.
• Miscellaneous @ 8 rigs, unchanged w/w.
• Rig count 1 year ago = 566.

STORAGE – 5-28-26 Estimate = +92Bcf. Actual = +92Bcf

• Last year = +101Bcf. 5-yr avg = +99Bcf.
• Storage levels are +21Bcf compared to this time last year.
• Storage levels are +144Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 2,339Bcf.
• At 2,483Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
• Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 3.9Tcf. 3-31-27 @ 1.7Tcf to 2.0Tcf

NATIONAL POWER GENERATION:

• NatGas = 40-42%
• Nuclear = 18-19%
• Coal = 14-15%
• Hydro = 5-7%
• Wind = 11-13%
• Solar = 8-10%

kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1392. Resi = $0.1883.

REAL TIME POWER (MW) PRICING RANGE on 5-27-26:

• CAISO = -$25 - $5
• WEIM = -$5 - $3
• SPP = -$20 - $40
• ERCOT = $22 - $26
• MISO = -$40 - $20
• PJM = $8 - $2,541

CRUDE = 2026 = $83.97, 2027 = $74.79, 2028 = $70.84, 2029 = $68.13

THE BOTTOM LINE

Natgas markets are extending yesterday's gains as traders turn their focus from surplus gas to summer demand, and quite possibly, an earlier and stronger summer demand. Solar is picking up massive demand behind CAISO and ERCOT while the sun is out. Without that solar, we're looking at price at least $0.50 to $1.00 higher per MMBtu. We could see a break next week in price as near-term summer months are showing cheaper prices than the prompt month, July '26.