THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 5-27-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Crude sits around $89 (-5%). Brent sits around $92 (-4%).
- As long as the SoH remains closed, prices will remain elevated.
- Even when SoH reopens, traders believe it will take months to undo the bottlenecks, insurance issues, and restart logistics.
- Natgas remains below that pesky $3.00 technical bull.
- We could see prices correct downward next week as cooler temps and rain blanket the South/SE regions.
- Permian oversupply continues to crush Waha basis.
- We should see prices in the West dip as demand falls.
- Solar continues to crush midday gas demand, but evening ramp ups remain one of the strongest bulls on gas right now.
- Tomorrow's storage estimate is on the bullish side as it falls below last year's injection and the 5-year average.
- LNG exports remain slightly below normal due to maintenance.
- PJM power pricing expected to run next few days.
NYMEX
June '26 – Open = $2.91, High = $2.96, Low = $2.85, Current = $2.95
- -$0.12 from 1 week ago
- -$0.35 from 1 year ago
- +$0.43 from 2 years ago
- 50-day avg = $2.83
- 20-day avg = $2.86
- 9-day avg = $2.98
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.05 (R2) = $3.26
PIVOT = $2.94
SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.89 (S2) = $2.82
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (June '26 Start) = $3.27
- Summer '26 (June – Oct) = $3.00
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $3.71
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.08
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.17
- Calendar '27 = $3.39
- Calendar '28 = $3.67
- Calendar '29 = $3.69
- Calendar '30 = $3.62
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year – thru May '26
- 2026 = $4.15
- 2025 = $3.45
- 2024 = $2.26
- 2023 = $2.73
- 2022 = $6.64
- 2021 = $3.84
- 2020 = $2.07
- 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
Further tightening of prices in most regions.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $2.309
- 2025 avg = $3.568
- 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $3.195
- 2025 avg = $3.891
- 2026 Transco Z5 South FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $6.45
- 2025 avg = $3.608
MARKET DATA
- LNG EXPORTS = 18.4Bcf, +8.8% w/w
- MEXICO EXPORTS = 7.1Bcf
- CANADIAN IMPORTS = 4.5Bcf
- DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 110.6Bcf, +3.1% y/y
- SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 112.8Bcf
- DEMAND – Today's Est.= 95.0Bcf
- 7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Moderate
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Scattered showers for both coasts and throughout the South. Slightly cooler for some except for the N. Plains.
- 6-10 Day = Bearish
- 8-14 Day = Bearish
- 3-4 Week = Bearish
- June – Aug = Bullish
- July – Sep = Bullish
- Aug – Oct = Even
Regional Forecasts
- NE/Mid-Atlantic = Increasing CDDs, very bullish PJM. 80s-50s.
- SE/Gulf = heat & humidity pushing CDDs higher. 80s-70s.
- Texas/S. Plains = Hot & humid with strong evening demand. 80s-60s.
- West/SW = Cool & dry, wildfire monitoring increasing. 70s-50s.
- Pac NW/N. Plains = Hot w/some shoers. Very hot in the Plains. 90s-60s.
- Mid-Con = Scattered showers are holding CDDs from taking off. 80s-60s.
RIG COUNT as of 5-22-26
- Total = 558, +7 w/w
- Oil @ 425 rigs, +10 w/w
- Natural Gas @ 125 rigs, -3 w/w
- Miscellaneous @ 8 rigs, unchanged w/w
- Rig count 1 year ago = 566
STORAGE
5-28-26 Estimate = +92Bcf. Actual + TBD
- Last year = +101Bcf
- 5-yr avg = +99Bcf
- Storage levels are +33Bcf compared to this time last year
- Storage levels are +149Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 2,242Bcf
- At 2,391Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range
- Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 3.9Tcf. 3-31-27 @ 1.7Tcf to 2.0Tcf
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
- NatGas = 40-42%
- Nuclear = 18-19%
- Coal = 14-15%
- Hydro = 5-6%
- Wind = 11-13%
- Solar = 9-11%
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1392. Resi = $0.1883.
REAL TIME POWER (MW) PRICING RANGE on 5-27-26
- CAISO = -$75 - $65
- WEIM = $26 - $30
- SPP = $35 - $40
- ERCOT = $25 - $30
- MISO = $25 - $42
- PJM = -$50 - $675
CRUDE
- 2026 = $87.27
- 2027 = $74.05
- 2028 = $70.49
- 2029 = $67.74
THE BOTTOM LINE
We're seeing near-term bullishness in NYMEX prices. Basis isn't moving much today. Let the current bulls play out. The short-term is showing bears pushing bulls down in weather, production, and possibly, in storage. We'll find out if that bear shows up tomorrow at 10:30 AM, EST. For those who have open positions for the summer months, we need to pay attention over the next few weeks and be ready to make decisions. Prices remain good. End of Q3 and all of Q4 are going to be where prices are expected to take off.