THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 5-22-26
May 22, 2026 by Sean Dookie
THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 5-22-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
• We'll keep it short today and wish you all a Happy Memorial Day.
TWO THINGS NEXT WEEK
• 2026 Direct Access Lottery - For the CA electricity market who want Third Party Supply - next week we will be beginning the process of gathering and reviewing paperwork form anyone interested in applying to the 2026 Direct Access Lottery. We will want all paperwork completed and submitted to us by June 5, 2026, for submission on June 9, 2026.
• Backbone Transportation Services (BTS) 2026 Open Season concludes 5PM, PST, June 12, 2026. For SoCal Natural Gas NonCore Customers – This allows SoCalGas users to apply for BTS Rights. If you have BTS Rights, you gain firm access, reduce exposure, move gas during constrained periods, and gain optionality for trading/storage optimization – that's more for your supplier than it is for you. The big thing you're looking at is getting the option of paying SoCal Border Basis instead of SoCal Citygate Basis. Border is usually cheaper. There is approximately 3,200MMBtuD available with the bulk of it on the Northern Zone (1,590MMBtu/D). See more in The Bottom Line.
NYMEX
June '26 – Open = $3.00, High = $3.01, Low = $2.96, Current = $2.97
• +$0.03 from 1 week ago • -$0.33 from 1 year ago • +$0.26 from 2 years ago • 50-day avg = $2.84 • 20-day avg = $2.82 • 9-day avg = $2.97
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.05 (R2) = $3.25 PIVOT = $2.95 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.90 (S2) = $2.84
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
• 12 months (June '26 Start) = $3.37 • Summer '26 (June – Oct) = $3.11 • Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $3.83 • Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.14 • Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.20 • Calendar '27 = $3.46 • Calendar '28 = $3.68 • Calendar '29 = $3.69 • Calendar '30 = $3.64
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year – thru May '26
• 2026 = $4.15 • 2025 = $3.45 • 2024 = $2.26 • 2023 = $2.73 • 2022 = $6.64 • 2021 = $3.84 • 2020 = $2.07 • 2019 = $2.62
2026 PG&E CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $2.3092025 avg = $3.568.
2026 SoCal CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $3.1952025 avg = $3.891.
2026 Transco Z5 South FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $6.452025 avg = $3.608.
MARKET DATA
• LNG EXPORTS = 18.4Bcf, +4.2% w/w. • MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.2Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG. • CANADIAN IMPORTS = 4.8Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand. • DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 110.4Bcf, +2.4% y/y. • SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 119.4Bcf. • DEMAND – Today's Est.= 99.1Bcf. • 7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Moderate
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Falling demand with a lot of scattered showers through the weekend for the eastern half of the US.
• 6-10 Day = Bearish • 8-14 Day = Bearish • 3-4 Week = Even
Seasonal Outlooks:• June – Aug = Bullish • July – Sep = Bullish • Aug – Oct = Even
Regional Weather:• NE/New England = Limited CDDs, rainy holiday. 60s-40s. • Mid-Atlantic = Scattered showers all weekend limit CDDs. 70s-60s. • SE/Gulf = Bullish pockets but heavy storms limit CDDs all weekend. 80s-60s. • Texas/S. Plains = Hot, humid, increasing CDDs. 80s-60s. • West/SW = Mild coast, warmer to the east. Bullish in the SW. 90s-60s. • Pac NW/N. Plains = Mild, warmer, limited demand. 80s-40s. • Mid-Con = Minimal CDD, storms moving in. 60s-50s.
RIG COUNT as of 5-15-26
• Total = 551, +3 w/w. • Oil @ 415 rigs, +5 w/w. • Natural Gas @ 128 rigs, -1 w/w. • Miscellaneous @ 9 rigs, -1 w/w. • Rig count 1 year ago = 576.
STORAGE – 5-21-26
• Estimate = +92Bcf. Actual = +101Bcf • Last year = +120Bcf. 5-yr avg = +91Bcf. • Storage levels are +33Bcf compared to this time last year. • Storage levels are +149Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 2,242Bcf. • At 2,391Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range. • Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 3.9Tcf. 3-31-27 @ 1.7Tcf to 2.0Tcf
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
• NatGas = 44% • Nuclear = 19% • Coal = 13% • Hydro = 5% • Wind = 10% • Solar = 9% (US average by midday is 18%)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1437. Resi = $0.1765.
REAL TIME POWER (MW) PRICING RANGE on 5-22-26
• CAISO = -$32 - $153 • ERCOT = $13 - $17 • SPP = -$30 - $195 • MISO = $15 - $21 • PJM = $27 - $40 • NYISO = $25 - $30
CRUDE PRICES
• 2026 = $88.20 • 2027 = $75.14 • 2028 = $70.81 • 2029 = $68.18
THE BOTTOM LINE
Winning either of Direct Access or BTS Rights is a long shot, but we love taking shots. So, if you're at all interested, we can walk you through the process, review all paperwork, and submit the paperwork on your behalf.
NOTE TO SOCAL BTS RIGHTS APPLICANTS – you want the BTS Rights in your name – do not hand them over to a supplier.
FP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions,310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie