THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 5-20-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Brent trading around $108. Crude trading around $101.
- Both are coming off a brief rally yesterday as events in Cuba (pending Castro indictment) could bring a clearer political picture.
- The UK will loosen some Russian sanctions by allowing imports of jet fuel and diesel refined by Russia's crude in India and Turkey.
- NYMEX gas prices fall after spending 5 days on the rise.
- Short-term Basis in the West falls a few cents.
- Cooling temps across the interior and the lowest LNG numbers seen since Jan '26 – that was due to freeze-offs limiting production.
- This bearish turn could be short lived unless LNG maintenance is prolonged, CDDs fall further, and production pick up.
- If production falls further from recent averages, we could see prompt month prices run.
NYMEX
June '26 – Open = $3.11, High = $3.13, Low = $3.04, Current = $3.07 +$0.17 from 1 week ago -$0.23 from 1 year ago +$0.36 from 2 years ago 50-day avg = $2.84 20-day avg = $2.78 9-day avg = $2.90
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.12 (R2) = $3.22 PIVOT = $3.00 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.96 (S2) = $2.86
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
12 months (June '26 Start) = $3.49 Summer '26 (June – Oct) = $3.25 Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $3.96 Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.19 Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.24 Calendar '27 = $3.53 Calendar '28 = $3.72 Calendar '29 = $3.71 Calendar '30 = $3.66
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year – thru May '26
2026 = $4.15 2025 = $3.45 2024 = $2.26 2023 = $2.73 2022 = $6.64 2021 = $3.84 2020 = $2.07 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
2026 PG&E CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $2.309 2025 avg = $3.568. 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $3.195 2025 avg = $3.891. 2026 Transco Z5 South FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $6.45 2025 avg = $3.608.
MARKET DATA
LNG EXPORTS = 15.6Bcf, -15.2% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 7.5Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 6.5Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 108.2Bcf, +0.5% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 117.2Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 95.8Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Moderate
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Major cooldown except for both coasts. Storms throughout TX and Mid-Con, gaining strength and moving east.
6-10 Day = Bullish 8-14 Day = Bullish 3-4 Week = Even May – July = Bullish June – Aug = Even July – Sep = Bearish
- NE/New England = Bullish CDDs w/some rain. 90s-40s.
- Mid-Atlantic = Bullish CDDs and mostly clear. 90s-60s.
- SE/Gulf = Moderate CDDs, storms later. 90s-70s.
- Texas/S. Plains = Falling CDDs with storms throughout. 80s-60s.
- West/SW = Increasing CDDs across the region. 90s-60s.
- Pac NW/N. Plains = Next to zero demand either direction. 70s-30s.
- Mid-Con = Neutral demand as temps drop significantly. 60s-40s.
RIG COUNT as of 5-15-26
- Total = 551, +3 w/w.
- Oil @ 415 rigs, +5 w/w.
- Natural Gas @ 128 rigs, -1 w/w.
- Miscellaneous @ 9 rigs, -1 w/w.
- Rig count 1 year ago = 576.
STORAGE – 5-21-26 Estimate = +81Bcf. Actual = TBD
Last year = +120Bcf. 5-yr avg = +91Bcf. Storage levels are +51Bcf compared to this time last year. Storage levels are +140Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 2,150Bcf. At 2,290Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range. Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 3.9Tcf. 3-31-27 @ 1.7Tcf to 2.0Tcf
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
NatGas = 42% Nuclear = 18% Coal = 14% Hydro = 5% Wind = 11% Solar = 10% (US average by midday is 18%)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1437. Resi = $0.1805.
REAL TIME POWER (MW) PRICING RANGE on 5-20-26
- CAISO = -$108 - $17
- ERCOT = -$38 - $17
- SPP = $20 - $41
- MISO = -$34 - $28
- PJM = -$34 - $22
- NYISO = $48 - $52
CRUDE
2026 = $95.40, 2027 = $77.37, 2028 = $72.07, 2029 = $69.29
THE BOTTOM LINE
The market appears to be entering an early summer pricing adjustment. Big focus is on tomorrow's storage report. Production is off from recent highs, but they keep pushing production as this great bear in the market. It's not. Driving factors are more bullish than bearish. Don't get caught looking.
FP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions, 310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie