THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 5-18-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Brent trading around $110. Crude trading around $103.
- Both are bearish on the day but bullish overall especially after an attack on a UAE nuclear facility.
- Oil trading w/geopolitics first, fundamentals a distant second.
- NYMEX gas prices are up for a 3rd straight day as the eastern half of the US takes on extreme heat with increasing humidity pushing CDDs well above the average for this time of year.
- We can't get too jumpy on current pricing as we still have too much physical gas, especially in some oversupplied regions like the SW/TX region.
- Traders are focused on summer cooling demand, growing LNG exports (now and in the future), and it's for these reasons that have NYMEX prices above many delivery point spot prices.
NYMEX
June '26 – Open = $2.99, High = $3.09, Low = $2.96, Current = $3.00
+$0.16 from 1 week ago
-$0.16 from 1 year ago
+$0.25 from 2 years ago
50-day avg = $2.84
20-day avg = $2.74
9-day avg = $2.83
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.10 (R2) = $3.22
PIVOT = $3.02
SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.95 (S2) = $2.86
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
12 months (June '26 Start) = $3.42
Summer '26 (June – Oct) = $3.11
Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $3.95
Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.21
Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.25
Calendar '27 = $3.47 Calendar '28 = $3.69
Calendar '29 = $3.69 Calendar '30 = $3.65
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year – thru May '26
2026 = $4.15 2025 = $3.45 2024 = $2.26 2023 = $2.73
2022 = $6.64 2021 = $3.84 2020 = $2.07 2019 = $2.62
BASIS – We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
2026 PG&E CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $2.309
2025 avg = $3.568.
2026 SoCal CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $3.195
2025 avg = $3.891.
2026 Transco Z5 South FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $6.45
2025 avg = $3.608.
LNG EXPORTS = 17.5Bcf, +1.9% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 7.4Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 6.5Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 109.7Bcf, +3.2% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 110.2Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 101.8Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Moderate
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: Above avg temps from TX to FL up to MA. Severe storm/tornado warning remain for the Mid-Con/SE regions.
6-10 Day = Bullish 8-14 Day = Bullish 3-4 Week = Even
May – July = Bullish June – Aug = Even July – Sep = Bearish
NE/New England = CDDs increasing all week long. 90s-50s.
Mid-Atlantic = Increasing CDDs w/little evening relief. 90s-60s.
SE/Gulf = CDDs increasing, storms along the coast. 90s-70s.
Texas/S. Plains = Bullish CDDs, clearing skies. 90s-70s.
West/SW = Cooler temps across the region. 80s-50s.
Pac NW/N. Plains = Some HDDs in the PM, storms to the east. 60s-20s.
Mid-Con = Major storms and increasing CDDs. 90s-70s.
RIG COUNT as of 5-15-26:
Total = 551, +3 w/w.
Oil @ 415 rigs, +5 w/w.
Natural Gas @ 128 rigs, -1 w/w.
Miscellaneous @ 9 rigs, -1 w/w.
Rig count 1 year ago = 576.
STORAGE – 5-21-26 Estimate = +86Bcf. Actual = +85Bcf
Last year = +110Bcf. 5-yr avg = +84Bcf.
Storage levels are +51Bcf compared to this time last year.
Storage levels are +140Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 2,150Bcf.
At 2,290Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 3.9Tcf. 3-31-27 @ 1.7Tcf to 2.0Tcf
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION:
NatGas = 41% Nuclear = 18% Coal = 14% Hydro = 6%
Wind = 12% Solar = 10% (peaks higher intraday)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1437. Resi = $0.1765.
REAL TIME POWER (MW) PRICING RANGE on 5-18-26:
CAISO = -$600 - $36 ERCOT = -$4 - $24 SPP = -$37 - $20
MISO = -$41 - $23 PJM = -$42 - $32 NYISO = $49 - $52
CRUDE = 2026 = $93.10, 2027 = $76.92, 2028 = $72.25, 2029 = $69.72
THE BOTTOM LINE
NYMEX and Basis (in most regions) are up and should remain elevated as long as temps and CDDs remain above normal. The spread between Index and forward prices is large enough that index in the very short term is the best option.
FP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions,
310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie