THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 5-14-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- The California Direct Access for 3rd Party Supply Lottery is coming up in the first week of June. If you are interested in entering the lottery to lock in your electricity rates, and you should want to do this as rates only go up in California., contact us and we will do what needs to be done.
- Brent and crude are bearish so far today as the world waits to see what comes from the US-China summit taking place.
- NYMEX gas prices are falling this morning on weakening demand and expectations of a strong injection today.
- Anything lower than a +80Bcf injection over the next few reports is considered bullish.
- LNG exports continue to be below recent averages.
- Near-term power demand looks to fall from recent projections as the recent heatwaves are moving through regions quickly.
NYMEX
June '26 – Open = $2.86, High = $2.89, Low = $2.79, Current = $2.81
- +$0.12 from 1 week ago
- -$0.68 from 1 year ago
- +$0.47 from 2 years ago
- 50-day avg = $2.85
- 20-day avg = $2.70
- 9-day avg = $2.79
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.00 (R2) = $3.25 PIVOT = $2.78 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.73 (S2) = $2.68
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (June '26 Start) = $3.35
- Summer '26 (June – Oct) = $3.00
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $3.88
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.14
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.21
- Calendar '27 = $3.50
- Calendar '28 = $3.68
- Calendar '29 = $3.65
- Calendar '30 = $3.63
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year – thru May '26
- 2026 = $4.15
- 2025 = $3.45
- 2024 = $2.26
- 2023 = $2.73
- 2022 = $6.64
- 2021 = $3.84
- 2020 = $2.07
- 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $2.309
- 2025 avg = $3.568
- 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $3.195
- 2025 avg = $3.891
- 2026 Transco Z5 South FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $6.45
- 2025 avg = $3.608
MARKET DATA
LNG EXPORTS = 17.3Bcf, -1.9% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.0Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 3.8Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 109.8Bcf, +3.1% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 110.1Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 98.4Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Moderate
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Mainly bearish with the exception of the SW/Texas/Plains regions. Storms in New England.
- 6-10 Day = Bullish
- 8-14 Day = Bullish
- 3-4 Week = Even
- May – July = Bullish
- June – Aug = Even
- July – Sep = Bearish
Regional Weather
- NE/New England = Low HDDs with storms rolling through. 50s-40s.
- Mid-Atlantic = Moderate CDDs with clear skies. 70s-40s.
- SE/Gulf = CDDs increasing through the weekend. 80s-50s.
- Texas/S. Plains = Bullish CDDs continue. Mostly clear skies. 90s-70s.
- West/SW = Cooler temps on the coast, cooling inland. 90s-50s.
- Pac NW/N. Plains = A little rain with mild temps and some HDDs. 60s-40s.
- Mid-Con = Building CDDs by the weekend as HDDs fade out. 70s-40s.
RIG COUNT as of 5-8-26
- Total = 548, +1 w/w.
- Oil @ 410 rigs, +2 w/w.
- Natural Gas @ 129 rigs, -1 w/w.
- Miscellaneous @ 9 rigs, no change w/w.
- Rig count 1 year ago = 578.
STORAGE – 5-14-26
- Estimate = +86Bcf. Actual = +85Bcf
- Last year = +110Bcf. 5-yr avg = +84Bcf.
- Storage levels are +51Bcf compared to this time last year.
- Storage levels are +140Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 2,150Bcf.
- At 2,290Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
- Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 3.9Tcf. 3-31-27 @ 1.7Tcf to 2.0Tcf
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
- NatGas = 43%
- Nuclear = 18%
- Coal = 14%
- Hydro = 7%
- Wind = 11%
- Solar = 7% (peaks higher intraday)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1412. Resi = $0.1805.
REAL TIME POWER (MW) PRICING RANGE on 5-14-26
- CAISO = -$345 - $103
- ERCOT = -$2 - $125
- SPP = -$78 - $2
- MISO = -$30 - $5
- PJM = $60 - $375
- NYISO = $35 - $38
CRUDE PRICES
- 2026 = $89.99
- 2027 = $76.12
- 2028 = $71.89
- 2029 = $69.50
THE BOTTOM LINE
NYMEX prices remain cheap compared to both last year and historical ranges. Basis prices out West are cheap. How cheap? PG&E CG Basis is approximately $60 cheaper y/y while SoCal CG is approximately $1.50 cheaper y/y. You still want to wait?
FP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie