THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 5-12-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- The US-Iran ceasefire has collapsed once again, pushing brent and crude up by around 3.5%.
- Expect upward revisions on forward oil price projections until we say differently as global supply fears increase.
- NYMEX gas prices are down after hitting a 6-week high yesterday.
- EIA's Short-Term Outlook (released this morning) expects injections to outpace the 5-yr avg, ending the season 6% above avg.
- LNG remains in maintenance season, loaning a few Bcfs to supply.
- The market's a little bullish today and will increase that sentiment when LNG maintenance season ends and exports increase.
- Clear skies and a drop in LNG could bring back some bears.
- EIA projects overall power demand will rise 3% y/y this summer.
- Double that projection for 2027.
NYMEX
June '26 – Open = $2.92, High = $2.94, Low = $2.84, Current = $2.85
- +$0.02 from 1 week ago
- -$0.80 from 1 year ago
- +$0.55 from 2 years ago
- 50-day avg = $2.85
- 20-day avg = $2.69
- 9-day avg = $2.77
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $2.95 (R2) = $3.10
PIVOT = $2.75
SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.70 (S2) = $2.60
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (June '26 Start) = $3.45
- Summer '26 (June – Oct) = $3.12
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $3.98
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.22
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.26
- Calendar '27 = $3.56
- Calendar '28 = $3.50
- Calendar '29 = $3.70
- Calendar '30 = $3.67
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year – thru May '26
- 2026 = $4.15
- 2025 = $3.45
- 2024 = $2.26
- 2023 = $2.73
- 2022 = $6.64
- 2021 = $3.84
- 2020 = $2.07
- 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $2.309
2025 avg = $3.568. - 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $3.195
2025 avg = $3.891. - 2026 Transco Z5 South FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $6.45
2025 avg = $3.608.
Market Data
- LNG EXPORTS Est. = 17.7Bcf, -0.6% w/w.
- MEXICO EXPORTS = 7.3Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG.
- CANADIAN IMPORTS = 5.8Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
- DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 111.4Bcf, +4.5% y/y.
- SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 111.1Bcf.
- DEMAND – Today's Est.= 107.8Bcf.
- 7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Moderate
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Storms over FL & Upper Peninsula. Big heat in the SW/TX/Plains.
- 6-10 Day = Bullish
- 8-14 Day = Bullish
- 3-4 Week = Even
- May – July = Bullish
- June – Aug = Even
- July – Sep = Bearish
Regional Weather
- NE/New England = Mild HDDs before rain tomorrow. 60s-40s.
- Mid-Atlantic = Light to moderate CDDs emerging. 70s-50s.
- SE/Gulf = Light CDDs outside of FL. 80s-60s.
- Texas/S. Plains = Bullish CDDs for the next few days. 90s-60s.
- West/SW = Mild along the coast, hot everywhere else. 100s-50s.
- Pac NW/N. Plains = The current heatwave ends by TH. 80s-40s.
- Great Lakes = Rain reducing solar generation as temps cool off. 80s-50s.
RIG COUNT as of 5-8-26
- Total = 548, +1 w/w.
- Oil @ 410 rigs, +2 w/w.
- Natural Gas @ 129 rigs, -1 w/w.
- Miscellaneous @ 9 rigs, no change w/w.
- Rig count 1 year ago = 578.
STORAGE
5-14-26 Estimate = +79Bcf. Actual = TBD
- Last year = +110Bcf.
- 5-yr avg = +84Bcf.
- Storage levels are +75Bcf compared to this time last year.
- Storage levels are +139Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 2,066Bcf.
- At 2,205Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
- Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 3.9Tcf. 3-31-27 @ 1.7Tcf to 2.0Tcf
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
- NatGas = 42%
- Nuclear = 19%
- Coal = 16%
- Hydro = 5%
- Wind = 11%
- Solar = 7% (peaks higher intraday)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1437. Resi = $0.1765.
REAL TIME POWER (MW) PRICING RANGE on 5-12-26
- CAISO = -$180 - $386
- ERCOT = $0 - $5
- SPP = -$46 - $0
- MISO = -$45 - $5
- PJM = $16 - $18
- NYISO = $5 - $7
CRUDE = 2026 = $88.44, 2027 = $75.49, 2028 = $72.49, 2029 = $70.07
THE BOTTOM LINE
Same as yesterday - Bulls are increasing. Current NYMEX prices are still below the estimated 2026 NYMEX average of $3.45. Basis prices at most delivery points are still cheaper than historical averages. 12-month strips transacted last week averaged more than $1.25 below 12-month strips transacted this time last year.
FP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions
310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie