THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 5-11-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- The closure of the SoH has become the largest disruption to world energy supply since the 70s oil crisis.
- Brent and Crude are both up again by a couple % - as expected.
- NYMEX gas prices are up 2.5% this morning as CDDs increase across the US.
- NYMEX gas is expected to average $3.10 for Q2 & Q3 before increasing to $3.50 in Q4.
- Natgas isn't explosively bullish yet, but fundamentals are shifting more towards bulls and bears are becoming harder to find.
- Production is averaging 2Bcf/D LESS than last month.
- Grids for ERCOT, PJM, SPP, and MISO will be tested this week as we get an early taste of summer demand in these regions.
- LNG is the silent bull that you will want to watch over AI.
NYMEX
June '26 – Open = $2.75, High = $2.85, Low = $2.75, Current = $2.84
- -$0.01 from 1 week ago
- -$0.81 from 1 year ago
- +$0.44 from 2 years ago
- 50-day avg = $2.85
- 20-day avg = $2.68
- 9-day avg = $2.74
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $2.95 (R2) = $3.10 PIVOT = $2.75 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.70 (S2) = $2.60
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (June '26 Start) = $3.42
- Summer '26 (June – Oct) = $3.09
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $3.97
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.21
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.25
- Calendar '27 = $3.53
- Calendar '28 = $3.48
- Calendar '29 = $3.69
- Calendar '30 = $3.65
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year – 2026 thru May
- 2026 = $4.15
- 2025 = $3.45
- 2024 = $2.26
- 2023 = $2.73
- 2022 = $6.64
- 2021 = $3.84
- 2020 = $2.07
- 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through May '26) = $2.309
- 2025 avg = $3.568
- 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through May '26) = $3.195
- 2025 avg = $3.891
- 2026 Transco Z5 South FoM Index avg (through May '26) = $6.45
- 2025 avg = $3.608
SUPPLY & DEMAND DATA
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 17.6Bcf, -4.6% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.3Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 3.8Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 110.8Bcf, +3.9% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 110.2Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 107.3Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Moderate
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Triple digits for inland CA through AZ. Increasing heat for TX/Plains/FL regions.
- 6-10 Day = Bullish
- 8-14 Day = Bullish
- 3-4 Week = Bullish
- May – July = Bullish
- June – Aug = Even
- July – Sep = Bearish
Regional Weather:
- NE/New England = Storms later, staying cool all day. 60s-40s.
- Mid-Atlantic = Storms across the region. Limited CDDs. 70s-40s.
- SE/Gulf = Storms for most of the region w/increasing CDDs. 80s-60s.
- Texas/S. Plains = Hotter than last week w/mostly clear skies. 80s-50s.
- West/SW = Big spike in CDDs. 100s-50s.
- Pac NW/N. Plains = CDDs increase. Seattle threatens to turn on AC. 70s-40s.
- Great Lakes = Bearish as clear skies balance lower temps. 70s-40s.
RIG COUNT as of 5-8-26:
- Total = 548, +1 w/w.
- Oil @ 410 rigs, +2 w/w.
- Natural Gas @ 129 rigs, -1 w/w.
- Miscellaneous @ 9 rigs, no change w/w.
- Rig count 1 year ago = 578.
STORAGE – 5-14-26
- Estimate = +79Bcf. Actual = TBD
- Last year = +110Bcf. 5-yr avg = +89Bcf.
- Storage levels are +75Bcf compared to this time last year.
- Storage levels are +139Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 2,066Bcf.
- At 2,205Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
- Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 3.9Tcf. 3-31-27 @ 1.7Tcf to 2.0Tcf
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION:
- NatGas = 39%
- Nuclear = 18%
- Coal = 16%
- Hydro = 7%
- Wind = 10%
- Solar = 10% (peaks higher intraday)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1412. Resi = $0.1805.
REAL TIME POWER (MW) PRICING RANGE on 5-11-26:
- CAISO = -$10 - $12
- ERCOT = $16 - $20
- SPP = -$41 - $208
- MISO = -$42 - $26
- PJM = $37 - $42
- NYISO = $26 - $30
CRUDE
- 2026 = $86.25
- 2027 = $74.49
- 2028 = $71.12
- 2029 = $69.17
THE BOTTOM LINE
Bulls are increasing. Current NYMEX prices are still below the estimated 2026 NYMEX average of $3.45. Basis prices at most delivery points are still cheaper than historical averages. 12-month strips transacted last week averaged more than $1.25 below 12-month strips transacted this time last year.
FP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie