THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 4-9-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Crude and Brent are up again as there is concern about this ceasefire actually happening.
- Strait of Hormuz status remains critical and highly uncertain.
- Brent up around $97. Crude up around $99.
- NYMEX natgas prompt month prices started the day flat as all eyes are on today's Storage Report, as it the case every Thursday.
- The current sentiment for natgas is oversupplied and cheap.
- Short-term, we're bearish but structural tightening in this market is on the way with summer demand fear premiums.
- Lot of negative Basis around the US right now. Take advantage.
- When the sun fails to shine in CA, power prices jump up. See CAISO in the Pricing Range section.
- No major power outages to report.
NYMEX
May '26 – Open = $2.73, High = $2.73, Low = $2.70, Current = $2.73
- -$0.05 from 1 week ago
- -$0.91 from 1 year ago
- +$0.84 from 2 years ago
- 50-day avg = $3.26
- 20-day avg = $2.98
- 9-day avg = $2.87
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.00 (R2) = $3.05 PIVOT = $2.68 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.65 (S2) = $2.50
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (May '26 Start) = $3.47
- Summer '26 (May – Oct) = $3.06
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.04
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.31
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.33
- Calendar '27 = $3.64
- Calendar '28 = $3.77
- Calendar '29 = $3.60
- Calendar '30 = $3.62
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
- 2026 = $4.54
- 2025 = $3.45
- 2024 = $2.26
- 2023 = $2.73
- 2022 = $6.64
- 2021 = $3.84
- 2020 = $2.07
- 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.580
- 2025 avg = $3.568
- 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $3.504
- 2025 avg = $3.891
- 2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.593
- 2025 avg = $3.103
SUPPLY & DEMAND DATA
- LNG EXPORTS Est. = 20.1Bcf, +1.0% w/w
- MEXICO EXPORTS = 7.0Bcf
- CANADIAN IMPORTS = 6.8Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand
- DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 111.0Bcf, +3.8% y/y
- SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 118.9Bcf
- DEMAND – Today's Est.= 114.1Bcf
- 7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Strong Shoulder Season weather taking place today.
Forecasts:
- 6-10 Day = Bearish
- 8-14 Day = Bearish
- 3-4 Week = Bearish
- May – July = Bullish
- June – Aug = Even
- July – Sep = Even
Regional Weather:
- NE/New England = Light residual HDDs. Rain showing up later. 50s-30s
- Mid-Atlantic = HDDs fading quickly with modest CDDs. 60s-40s
- SE/Gulf = Minimal CDDs with some rain. 70s-50s
- Texas/S. Plains = Early season CDDs starting to matter. 80s-50s
- West/SW = Rain moves in from the north. 90s-50s
- Pac NW/N. Plains = Storms to the south. Warming up. 70s-20s
- Midwest/Great Lakes = Warmer w/storms moving in. 70s-50s
RIG COUNT as of 4-2-26
- Total = 548, +5 w/w
- Oil @ 411 rigs, +2 w/w
- Natural Gas @ 130 rigs, +3 w/w
- Miscellaneous @ 7 rigs, no change w/w
- Rig count 1 year ago = 592
STORAGE – 4-9-26
- Estimate = +43Bcf
- Actual = +50Bcf
- Last year = +57Bcf
- 5-yr avg = +21Bcf
- Storage levels are 89Bcf compared to this time last year
- Storage levels are +87Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,824Bcf
- At 1,911Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range
- Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
- NatGas = 41%
- Nuclear = 20%
- Coal = 14%
- Hydro = 6%
- Wind = 11%
- Solar = 8% (peaks higher intraday)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1364, Resi = $0.1745
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 10:0AM, EST, 4-9-26
- CAISO = -$40 - $147
- ERCOT = -$35 - $30
- MISO = -$13 - $19
- PJM = $15 - $19
- NYISO = $29 - $37
- ISONE = $31 - $39
CRUDE PRICING
- 2026 = $87.17
- 2027 = $71.83
- 2028 = $68.46
- 2029 = $60.11
THE BOTTOM LINE
Slight change form yesterday - Weather turns more bearish by the weekend. Supply is strong. Prices are down. Basis prices in many regions are down. We could see prices fall further but we are now in a good "buy" zone for NYMEX.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions
310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie