THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 4-8-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Crude and Brent are both down as much as 18% with the announcement of a US-Iran 2-week cease-fire with talk of Strait of Hormuz reopening.
- Brent down around $93. Crude down around $94.
- NYMEX natgas prompt month prices are down as much as $0.16 before today's opening bell. Forward months are also falling hard.
- Basis in the West is falling after a brief rally.
- LNG is increasing which will tighten up the domestic supply.
- We could see elevated CDDs as early as next week across the US.
- Power prices are reacting to a warmer-than-normal cooling season starting in May.
- Coal generation power is expected to fall by 7% in 2026 as RE generation expands.
NYMEX
May '26 – Open = $2.84, High = $2.84, Low = $2.70, Current = $2.74
- -$0.10 from 1 week ago
- -$0.79 from 1 year ago
- +$0.96 from 2 years ago
- 50-day avg = $3.34
- 20-day avg = $2.99
- 9-day avg = $2.89
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.00 (R2) = $3.05 PIVOT = $2.68 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.65 (S2) = $2.50
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (May '26 Start) = $3.42
- Summer '26 (May – Oct) = $2.96
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $3.97
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.30
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.35
- Calendar '27 = $3.66
- Calendar '28 = $3.70
- Calendar '29 = $3.65
- Calendar '30 = $3.68
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
- 2026 = $4.54
- 2025 = $3.45
- 2024 = $2.26
- 2023 = $2.73
- 2022 = $6.64
- 2021 = $3.84
- 2020 = $2.07
- 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
BASIS – We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.580
- 2025 avg = $3.568
- 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $3.504
- 2025 avg = $3.891
- 2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.593
- 2025 avg = $3.103
SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATA
- LNG EXPORTS Est. = 18.7Bcf, -3.2% w/w
- MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.5Bcf
- CANADIAN IMPORTS = 6.2Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand
- DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 109.2Bcf, +1.7% y/y
- SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 118.5Bcf
- DEMAND – Today's Est.= 114.2Bcf
- 7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Lingering cold for NE and Northern Border.
- 6-10 Day = Bearish
- 8-14 Day = Bearish
- 3-4 Week = Bearish
- May – July = Bullish
- June – Aug = Even
- July – Sep = Even
Regional Weather
- NE/New England = Bullish HDDs for another day or two. 40s-20s
- Mid-Atlantic = Chilliest day of this week before a nice warmup. 60s-30s
- SE/Gulf = CDDs increasing over the next few days. 70s-50s
- Texas/S. Plains = Early CDDs creeping in. 80s-50s
- West/SW = Pleasant throughout with limited CDDs to the east. 90s-50s
- Pac NW/N. Plains = Light HDDs still in play. 60s-20s
- Midwest/Great Lakes = Fading HDDs with a big warmup. 70s-40s
RIG COUNT
As of 4-2-26:
- Total = 548, +5 w/w
- Oil @ 411 rigs, +2 w/w
- Natural Gas @ 130 rigs, +3 w/w
- Miscellaneous @ 7 rigs, no change w/w
- Rig count 1 year ago = 592
STORAGE
4-9-26 Estimate = -+43Bcf. Actual = TBD
- Last year = +57Bcf
- 5-yr avg = +21Bcf
- Storage levels are +96Bcf compared to this time last year
- Storage levels are +54Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,811Bcf
- At 1,865Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range
- Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
- NatGas = 41%
- Nuclear = 20%
- Coal = 17%
- Hydro = 5%
- Wind = 10%
- Solar = 7% (peaks higher intraday)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1364. Resi = $0.1745
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 10:0AM, EST, 4-8-26
- CAISO = $26 - $53
- ERCOT = -$9 - $26
- MISO = $0 - $17
- PJM = -$62 - $119
- NYISO = $32 - $34
- ISONE = $31 - $35
CRUDE OIL PRICING
- 2026 = $77.50
- 2027 = $69.85
- 2028 = $68.21
- 2029 = $65.97
THE BOTTOM LINE
The war fear premium is gone for now. Weather turns more bearish by the weekend. Supply is strong. Prices are down 5% already today due to the 2-week ceasefire announcement. We could see prices fall further but we are now in a good "buy" zone for NYMEX. Also take advantage of Basis prices before summer demand fear kicks in.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions
310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com
X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie