THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 4-30-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
• Crude and Brent seeing big moves w/Brent touching $126 briefly. • WH tells aides to prepare for an extended naval blockade in SoH. • Canada quickly becoming relevant in the LNG arena. • NYMEX gas prices were falling earlier only to tighten up as we approached the storage report. Came in bullish. • Mild weather and strong storage keeping NYMEX down. • Production and LNG exports both remain below recent averages. • Power markets/traders are bracing for summer demand price spikes with 1.2% overall increase in demand for 2026. • Factor in the below average demand being experienced now. • Of the 12 GW of Data Centers said to be coming online in 2026, only 5 are under construction. Are we overestimating and overpricing 2026 through 2030?
NYMEX
June '26 – Open = $2.64, High = $2.67, Low = $2.59, Current = $2.67
+$0.01 from 1 week ago -$0.91 from 1 year ago +$0.73 from 2 years ago
50-day avg = $2.87 20-day avg = $2.67 9-day avg = $2.63
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $2.95 (R2) = $3.10 PIVOT = $2.57 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.52 (S2) = $2.40
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
12 months (June '26 Start) = $3.34 Summer '26 (June – Oct) = $2.93 Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $3.90 Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.21 Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.27 Calendar '27 = $3.54 Calendar '28 = $3.68 Calendar '29 = $3.70 Calendar '30 = $3.71
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
2026 = $4.54 2025 = $3.45 2024 = $2.26 2023 = $2.73 2022 = $6.64 2021 = $3.84 2020 = $2.07 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.580 2025 avg = $3.568.
2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $3.504 2025 avg = $3.891.
2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.593 2025 avg = $3.103.
MARKET DATA
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 19.1Bcf, -4.2% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.0Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 4.1Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 109.9Bcf, +2.9% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 112.3Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 105.3Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Moderate
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Mildly bullish for the Mid-Con and NE regions. Bearish for the rest of us. Scattered showers from Denver to Bangor.
6-10 Day = Bearish 8-14 Day = Bearish 3-4 Week = Bearish
May – July = Bullish June – Aug = Even July – Sep = Bearish
Regional Weather:• NE/New England = Rain & cooler temps. 50s-30s. • Mid-Atlantic = Light rain & slightly muggy. 70s-50s. • SE/Gulf = Rain & humidity across the region. 70s-50s. • Texas/S. Plains = Rain & humidity, higher temps. 80s-60s. • West/SW = Clear with increasing heat in the SW corner. 90s-50s. • Pac NW/N. Plains = Clear & cool - best weather in the US today. 70s-50s. • Great Lakes = Rain & falling temps. 60s-30s.
RIG COUNT as of 4-24-26
Total = 544, +1 w/w. Oil @ 407 rigs, -3 w/w. Natural Gas @ 129 rigs, +4 w/w. Miscellaneous @ 8 rigs, no change w/w. Rig count 1 year ago = 587.
STORAGE – 4-30-26
Estimate = +83Bcf. Actual = +79Bcf Last year = +107Bcf. 5-yr avg = +63Bcf.
Storage levels are +116Bcf compared to this time last year. Storage levels are +153Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,989Bcf. At 2,142Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 3.9Tcf. 3-31-27 @ 1.7Tcf to 2.0Tcf
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
NatGas = 42% Nuclear = 18% Coal = 14% Hydro = 5% Wind = 11% Solar = 10% (peaks higher intraday)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1450. Resi = $0.1805.
REAL TIME POWER (MW) PRICING RANGE on 4-30-26
CAISO = -$72 - $77 ERCOT = $50 - $51 MISO = -$41 - $23 PJM = $36 - $53 NYISO = $43 - $133 ISONE = $46 - $48
CRUDE
2026 = $88.65, 2027 = $73.33, 2028 = $68.79, 2029 = $66.03
THE BOTTOM LINE
Storage is 8% above average for this time of year. Consumption is now not expected to increase with the cooler than normal forecasts next week. We believe we are sitting near the bottom of the market. Basis is tightening up. While you're waiting for NYMEX to fall another $0.10, Basis could be eating up that $0.10, and more.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie