THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 4-27-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Crude sits @ $96, up 2%. Brent sits at $107, up 2%.
- Oil prices failing to start the week with a rally due to more hope on a ceasefire.
- NYMEX gas prices are up this morning after falling a little over the weekend.
- The rally is based off of the late season cold snap that has HDDs elevated.
- It should be a short-lived rally as gas prices have no other upward support right now.
- Lack of CDDs in the Mid-Atlantic/SE offsetting the HDD increase.
- Basis prices out West are up from recent record lows.
- ERCOT predicts that demand in the region will quadruple by 2032.
- No major grid disruptions to move power prices.
NYMEX
May '26 – Open = $2.50, High = $2.60, Low = $2.50, Current = $2.60
- -$0.08 from 1 week ago
- -$0.76 from 1 year ago
- +$0.58 from 2 years ago
- 50-day avg = $2.91
- 20-day avg = $2.73
- 9-day avg = $2.65
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $2.85 (R2) = $3.00 PIVOT = $2.55 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.45 (S2) = $2.30
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (May '26 Start) = $3.48
- Summer '26 (May – Oct) = $3.08
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.04
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.30
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.33
- Calendar '27 = $3.63
- Calendar '28 = $3.76
- Calendar '29 = $3.70
- Calendar '30 = $3.71
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
- 2026 = $4.54
- 2025 = $3.45
- 2024 = $2.26
- 2023 = $2.73
- 2022 = $6.64
- 2021 = $3.84
- 2020 = $2.07
- 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.580
- 2025 avg = $3.568
- 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $3.504
- 2025 avg = $3.891
- 2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.593
- 2025 avg = $3.103
SUPPLY & DEMAND DATA
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 19.7Bcf, +0.7% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.8Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 4.2Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 110.4Bcf, +3.7% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 112.5Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 107.8Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Storms throughout the Midwest. Texas & South Central is the bullish region today with elevated CDDs.
- 6-10 Day = Bearish
- 8-14 Day = Bearish
- 3-4 Week = Bearish
- May – July = Bullish
- June – Aug = Even
- July – Sep = Bearish
Regional Weather
NE/New England = HDDs still part of the weather in this region. 70s-40s.
Mid-Atlantic = Chillier than normal w/chance of some HDDs. 70s-50s.
SE/Gulf = Below normal temps crushing CDDs. 80s-60s.
Texas/S. Plains = Elevated CDDs with pushing prices volatility. 90s-70s.
West/SW = Slight CDDs in the SW desert, pleasant everywhere else. 70s-40s.
Pac NW/N. Plains = HDDs remain across the north border. 60s-20s.
Great Lakes = Severe storm with colder temps moving in. 70s-50s.
RIG COUNT as of 4-24-26
- Total = 544, +1 w/w.
- Oil @ 407 rigs, -3 w/w.
- Natural Gas @ 129 rigs, +4 w/w.
- Miscellaneous @ 8 rigs, no change w/w.
- Rig count 1 year ago = 587.
STORAGE – 4-23-26
- Estimate = +94Bcf. Actual = +103Bcf
- Last year = +88Bcf. 5-yr avg = +60Bcf.
- Storage levels are +142Bcf compared to this time last year.
- Storage levels are +137Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,926Bcf.
- At 2,063Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
- Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
- NatGas = 40%
- Nuclear = 16%
- Coal = 14%
- Hydro = 5%
- Wind = 20%
- Solar = 6% (peaks higher intraday)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1437. Resi = $0.1765.
REAL TIME POWER MEGAWATT PRICING RANGE on 4-24-26
- CAISO = -$82 - $9
- ERCOT = -$71 - $78
- MISO = $22 - $31
- PJM = $25 - $27
- NYISO = $25 - $28
- ISONE = $26 - $30
CRUDE
- 2026 = $85.65
- 2027 = $73.45
- 2028 = $69.15
- 2029 = $66.75
THE BOTTOM LINE
NYMEX prices remain cheaper than normal, well below the estimated average for 2027 & 2027. Basis is creeping up a little right now from some of the best prices we've seen in years. What are waiting for? Fixed prices are not beating the daily spot prices right now, they rarely do. But when prices go up, it will be too late to lock in these current, cheap prices.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions, 310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie