THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 4-21-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Crude & Brent prices are flat so far this morning, up less than 1%.
- Possible peace talks in the Middle East have oil prices easing.
- NYMEX natgas prices continue to be flat, trading within a minimum range.
- El Paso Basis is up after enjoying well below average prices.
- WAHA continues to see negative prices as production form oil fields increases regional natgas demand as well.
- LNG exports move above 20Bcf again.
- Golden Pass LNG receives its inaugural tanker to export.
- Ohio 12-month power prices rose to $55/MWH while Pennsylvania saw prices increase to $64/MWH in the same timeframe.
- Production falls but so will demand by week's end.
NYMEX
May '26 – Open = $2.67, High = $2.69, Low = $2.64, Current = $2.68
- +$0.06 from 1 week ago
- -$0.48 from 1 year ago
- +$0.90 from 2 years ago
- 50-day avg = $2.96
- 20-day avg = $2.79
- 9-day avg = $2.65
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $2.85 (R2) = $3.00
PIVOT = $2.60
SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.55 (S2) = $2.35
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (May '26 Start) = $3.40
- Summer '26 (May – Oct) = $3.02
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $3.93
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.25
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.29
- Calendar '27 = $3.57
- Calendar '28 = $3.67
- Calendar '29 = $3.63
- Calendar '30 = $3.64
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
- 2026 = $4.54
- 2025 = $3.45
- 2024 = $2.26
- 2023 = $2.73
- 2022 = $6.64
- 2021 = $3.84
- 2020 = $2.07
- 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.580
- 2025 avg = $3.568
- 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $3.504
- 2025 avg = $3.891
- 2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.593
- 2025 avg = $3.103
MARKET DATA
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 20.3Bcf, +3.2% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 7.0Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 4.7Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 109.Bcf, +2.0% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 112.4Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 106.5Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
A Pacific storm pushes into the West, bumping up HDDs across the western third of the US.
- 6-10 Day = Bearish
- 8-14 Day = Bearish
- 3-4 Week = Bearish
- May – July = Bullish
- June – Aug = Even
- July – Sep = Bearish
Regional Weather:
- NE/New England = Below normal temps. Rain creeping in. 50s-30s.
- Mid-Atlantic = Light CDDs with clear skies. 70s-40s.
- SE/Gulf = Modest CDDs with very dry conditions. 80s-50s.
- Texas/S. Plains = Warmer temps and heavy storms to the east. 70s-60s.
- West/SW = Rain blankets most of CA while AZ warms up. 90s-40s.
- Pac NW/N. Plains = Rain and snow in the mountains moving in. 70s-40s.
- Great Lakes = Light rain with bearish HDDs and early season CDDs. 70s-40s.
RIG COUNT as of 4-17-26:
- Total = 543, -2 w/w.
- Oil @ 410 rigs, -1 w/w.
- Natural Gas @ 125 rigs, -2 w/w.
- Miscellaneous @ 8 rigs, +1 w/w.
- Rig count 1 year ago = 585.
STORAGE – 4-16-26
- Estimate = +55Bcf. Actual = +59Bcf
- Last year = +26Bcf. 5-yr avg = +19Bcf.
- Storage levels are 126Bcf compared to this time last year.
- Storage levels are +108Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,862Bcf.
- At 1,970Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
- Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION:
- NatGas = 40%
- Nuclear = 19%
- Coal = 15%
- Hydro = 7%
- Wind = 13%
- Solar = 6% (peaks higher intraday)
POWER PRICING
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1364 (+6.4% y/y). Resi = $0.1745 (+9% y/y)
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE on 4-21-26:
- CAISO = $22 - $44
- ERCOT = $35 - $40
- MISO = $3 - $8
- PJM = -$23 - $16
- NYISO = $26 - $31
- ISONE = $26 - $29
CRUDE PRICES
- 2026 = $84.15
- 2027 = $71.98
- 2028 = $68.48
- 2029 = $66.32
THE BOTTOM LINE
The market hasn't moved much and neither has our outlook from yesterday. We could see NYMEX prices fall further this week as a cool front moves across the US, putting both CDDs and HDDs at a minimum. Basis prices continue to be the cheapest in LNG will only increase support for higher domestic prices. Summer weather is coming. Maintenance season is coming. Above normal storage injections could already be priced into current prices.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions
310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie