THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 4-14-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
• Crude and Brent are both falling this morning on renewed hope of resolution in the Middle East. • Crude down around $96. Brent down around $97. • NYMEX natgas prices are starting today out flat with months further out seeing red. • Ample supply & lower than normal demand keeping prices down. • CAISO saw RE cover nearly 85% of power demand yesterday. • Power prices across major ISOs remain cheap. • Any storage report with an injection over 50Bcf this week will apply further downward pressure on prices while anything under 40Bcf will bring back some bulls. • Temperatures forecast for the balance of April are above normal. • LNG exports remain robust.
NYMEX
May '26 – Open = $2.62, High = $2.66, Low = $2.57, Current = $2.62
-$0.23 from 1 week ago -$1.02 from 1 year ago +$0.73 from 2 years ago
50-day avg = $3.05 20-day avg = $2.90 9-day avg = $2.76
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $2.90 (R2) = $3.00 PIVOT = $2.55 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.45 (S2) = $2.35
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
12 months (May '26 Start) = $3.43 Summer '26 (May – Oct) = $3.03 Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.01 Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.25 Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.29 Calendar '27 = $3.60 Calendar '28 = $3.74 Calendar '29 = $3.58 Calendar '30 = $3.59
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
2026 = $4.54 2025 = $3.45 2024 = $2.26 2023 = $2.73 2022 = $6.64 2021 = $3.84 2020 = $2.07 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.580 2025 avg = $3.568.
2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $3.504 2025 avg = $3.891.
2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.593 2025 avg = $3.103.
Market Data
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 19.9Bcf, +1.5% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 7.0Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 5.5Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 110.8Bcf, +2.4% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 113.1Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 98.5Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Record highs being enjoyed today across the eastern half of the US. Severe storms throughout the Mid-Continent.
Weather maps showing temperature outlooks for different time periods across the US
6-10 Day = Bearish 8-14 Day = Bearish 3-4 Week = Bearish
May – July = Bullish June – Aug = Even July – Sep = Even
NE/New England = CDDs this week. Some rain. 80s-50s. Mid-Atlantic = Continued CDDs and clear. 80s-60s. SE/Gulf = Continued CDDs with clear skies. 80s-60s. Texas/S. Plains = Some storms and continued CDDs. 80s-60s. West/SW = Picture perfect. 70s-40s. Pac NW/N. Plains = Colder than normal with rain throughout. 50s-30s. Great Lakes = Increasing CDDs with storms across the region. 80s-60s.
RIG COUNT as of 4-10-26:
Total = 545, -3 w/w. Oil @ 411 rigs, no change w/w Natural Gas @ 127 rigs, -3 w/w. Miscellaneous @ 7 rigs, no change w/w. Rig count 1 year ago = 583.
STORAGE
4-16-26 Estimate = +39Bcf to +69Bcf. Actual = TBD Last year = +26Bcf. 5-yr avg = +19Bcf. Storage levels are 89Bcf compared to this time last year. Storage levels are +87Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,824Bcf. At 1,911Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range. Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION:
NatGas = 38% Nuclear = 19% Coal = 16% Hydro = 6% Wind = 12% Solar = 9% (peaks higher intraday)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1364. Resi = $0.1745
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 10:0AM, EST, 4-14-26:
CAISO = -$70 - $10 ERCOT = -$2 - $22 MISO = $9 - $23 PJM = $15 - $16 NYISO = $24 - $27 ISONE = $28 - $33
CRUDE
2026 = $87.17, 2027 = $71.83, 2028 = $68.46, 2029 = $66.11
THE BOTTOM LINE
We are now technically in Shoulder Season. Domestic energy is pretty much insulated from foreign affairs. Any war premiums sticking around in natgas prices should be gone. We could prices fall a little further on NYMEX. Basis is falling.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions, 310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie