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THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 4-1-26
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THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 4-1-26

April 1, 2026 by Sean Dookie

LNG exportsNYMEXNatural Gasbasis pricingcrude oilenergy marketspower generationrig countstorageweather forecast

THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 4-1-26

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

  • Crude and Brent are both down on speculation that the conflict with Iran could end as soon as 2 to 3 weeks.
  • That's coming from the same "experts" that swore prices were going to $120-$150 if disruptions in the Middle East continue.
  • Expect such speculation to continue as the conflict continues.
  • NYMEX natgas prices start April down a few cents.
  • Basis prices increasing at delivery points we care about.
  • Heating demand is all but forgotten on trading floors.
  • LNG exports are on the rise as Corpus Christi Stage 3, opening Feb '26, is flowing steadily.
  • US power demand expected to surpass 4,200BB kWh in 2026.
  • Weather becoming a bigger bear for the next few weeks.
  • No freeze-offs or disruptions to report today.

NYMEX

May '26 – Open = $2.88, High = $2.89, Low = $2.83, Current = $2.83

  • -$0.07 from 1 week ago
  • -$1.39 from 1 year ago
  • +$0.94 from 2 years ago
  • 50-day avg = $3.49
  • 20-day avg = $3.04
  • 9-day avg = $2.99

RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.00 (R2) = $3.10 PIVOT = $2.78 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.70 (S2) = $2.60

NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS

  • 12 months (May '26 Start) = $3.60
  • Summer '26 (May – Oct) = $3.18
  • Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.19
  • Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.41
  • Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.47
  • Calendar '27 = $3.77
  • Calendar '28 = $3.71
  • Calendar '29 = $3.63
  • Calendar '30 = $3.61

NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year

  • 2026 = $5.03
  • 2025 = $3.45
  • 2024 = $2.26
  • 2023 = $2.73
  • 2022 = $6.64
  • 2021 = $3.84
  • 2020 = $2.07
  • 2019 = $2.62

BASIS

We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.

  • 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $2.857
  • 2025 avg = $3.568
  • 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.935
  • 2025 avg = $3.891
  • 2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.051
  • 2025 avg = $3.103

LNG EXPORTS

LNG EXPORTS Est. = 19.8Bcf, +0.5% w/w.

MEXICO EXPORTS = 7.0Bcf.

CANADIAN IMPORTS = 7.5Bcf.

DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 113.Bcf, +5.4% y/y.

SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 122.8Bcf.

DEMAND – Today's Est.= 114.1Bcf.

7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS

HDDs remain in the North/NW regions. Severe storms for the middle of the US.

  • 10 Day = Bearish
  • 8-14 Day = Bearish
  • 3-4 Week = Bearish
  • May – July = Bullish
  • June – Aug = Even
  • July – Sep = Even

Regional Forecasts:

  • NE/New England = Warm today but cold but tomorrow. 70s-20s.
  • Mid-Atlantic = Well above normal temps w/some storms in parts. 80s-60s.
  • SE/Gulf = Summer like weather with increased CDDs. 80s-60s.
  • Texas/S. Plains = Increased CDDs with storms rolling through. 90s-60s.
  • West/SW = Pleasant in the south, storms to the north. 80s-50s.
  • Pac NW/N. Plains = Heavy rain and elevated HDDs. 50s-30s.
  • Midwest/Great Lakes = Big storms throughout the region. 60s-50s.

RIG COUNT

As of 3-27-26:

  • Total = 543, -9 w/w.
  • Oil @ 409 rigs, -5 w/w.
  • Natural Gas @ 127 rigs, -4 w/w.
  • Miscellaneous @ 7 rigs, no change w/w.
  • Rig count 1 year ago = 592.

STORAGE

4-2-26 Estimate = -+24Bcf. Actual = TBD

  • Last year = -37Bcf
  • 5-yr avg = -13Bcf
  • Storage levels are +90Bcf compared to this time last year.
  • Storage levels are +14Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,815Bcf.
  • At 1,829Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
  • Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf.

NATIONAL POWER GENERATION

  • NatGas = 40%
  • Nuclear = 18%
  • Coal = 13%
  • Hydro = 6%
  • Wind = 13%
  • Solar = 10% (peaks higher intraday)

kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1364. Resi = $0.1745

REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE

@ 10:0AM, EST, 4-1-26:

  • CAISO = $31 - $34
  • ERCOT = -$2 - $28
  • MISO = $18 - $28
  • PJM = $13 - $22
  • NYISO = -$12 - $53
  • ISONE = $36 - $38

CRUDE = 2026 = $82.75, 2027 = $69.68, 2028 = $67.24, 2029 = $65.47

THE BOTTOM LINE

Same as yesterday - if this year lines up with last year, we could see the best buying opportunities for NYMEX the further we go into April but before May (summer fear kicks off). We didn't have a war premium last year and LNG wasn't being built out as quickly as it is this year, but storage, production, and weather could outperform LNG & war premiums through April '26.

RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.

Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions

310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie

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THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 4-1-26 | RFP Energy Solutions