THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 3-4-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Oil prices stabilizing with front month staying below $75.00
- NYMEX prices looking to change direction and fall back below the $3.00 mark
- Prompt month falling as much as $0.13 at the opening bell
- Traders now pulling back on the fear premium priced in the last 2 days
- Despite ongoing concerns in the ME, domestic prices are under further pressure from mild weather and a fading heating demand
- Power demand remains bullish for 2026/2027 on LNG exports, and concern of tightening storage/supply to meet growing AI demand
- End of March storage inventories now expected to be lower than previously forecasted – giving support to higher prices
- LNG EXPORTS continue to grow with 3 terminals set to increase export capacity in Q2
NYMEX
Apr '26 – Open = $3.04, High = $3.07, Low = $2.91, Current = $2.95
-$0.01 from 1 week ago
-$1.47 from 1 year ago
+$1.03 from 2 years ago
50-day avg = $3.76
20-day avg = $3.11
9-day avg = $2.96
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.12 (R2) = $3.40
PIVOT = $3.00
SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.90 (S2) = $2.80
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
12 months (April '26 Start) = $3.78
Summer '26 (April – Oct) = $3.40
Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.33
Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.41
Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.34
Calendar '27 = $3.76 Calendar '28 = $4.54
Calendar '29 = $3.60 Calendar '30 = $3.59
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
2026 = $6.07 2025 = $3.45 2024 = $2.26 2023 = $2.73
2022 = $6.64 2021 = $3.84 2020 = $2.07 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through Feb '26) = $3.33
2025 avg = $3.568
2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through Feb '26) = $4.64
2025 avg = $3.891
2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through Feb '26) = $3.78
2025 avg = $3.103
Market Data
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 19.6Bcf, +1.3% w/w
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.7Bcf
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 5.8Bcf
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 112.8Bcf, +4.9% y/y
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 111.8Bcf
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 107.2Bcf
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Heavy rain for the middle of the US moving east.
10 Day = Bearish 8-14 Day = Bearish 3-4 Week = Even
March – May = Bullish April – June = Bullish May – June = Bullish
NE/New England = Rain moves in. 10s-40s
Mid-Con = Rain throughout the region. 20s-50s
SE/Gulf = Summer wear with UV protection. Chance of showers. 50s-80s
TX/S. Plains = Storms & Tornado warnings for the next 24 hours. 50s-90s
Rockies/N. Plains = Rain moves in with temps falling. 20s-60s
Pac NW/West = Heavy raingear to the north, shorts to the south. 40s-80s
RIG COUNT
As of 2-27-26:
Total = 550, -1 w/w
Oil @ 407 rigs, -2 w/w
Natural Gas @ 134 rigs, +1 w/w
Miscellaneous @ 9 rigs, no change w/w
Rig count 1 year ago = 593
STORAGE
3-5-26 Estimate = -120Bcf. Actual = TBD
Last year = -81Bcf. 5-yr avg = -140Bcf
+141Bcf compared to this time last year
-7Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 2,025Bcf
At 2,018Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range
Storage forecasted avg for 3-31-26 = 1.90Tcf
Storage forecasted avg for 10-31-26 = 4.0Tcf
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
NatGas = 39% Nuclear = 18% Coal = 16% Hydro = 6%
Wind = 12% Solar = 9%
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1400. Resi = $0.1800
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 9:30AM, EST, 3-4-26
CAISO = $20 - $22 ERCOT = $2 - $21 MISO = $20 - $25
PJM = -$600 - $250 NYISO = $40 - $46 ISONE = $38 - $44
CALIFORNIA POWER GEN SUPPLY @ 9:30AM, EST, 3-4-26
NG 18%, RE 28%, Hydro 14%, Imports 22%, Battery 8%, Nuke 10%
THE BOTTOM LINE
EIA is forecasting $4.30 NYMEX average for 2026. This tells us that the second half of 2026 is going to be bullish if NYMEX right now is sitting at $3.00. Basis at many delivery points is below average. We may not get back to the prices we saw just 2 weeks ago but we remain in a Buy zone. There is no guarantee that Shoulder Season will bring further discounts.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions
310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie