THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 3-20-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Both Crude and Brent are falling so far this morning.
- NYMEX natgas prices showed support for Europe's skyrocketing natgas market. Prices are correcting downward this morning.
- Looks like the winter premium is about to roll off pricing.
- EU natgas pricing hit a 3 year high yesterday as Qatar announced extensive damage at the Ras Laffan (world's largest LNG terminal).
- Seeing as U.S. LNG exports are near/at full capacity it baffles the mind how domestic natgas prices can be attached to EU's growing demand.
- With LNG exports essentially full, upside is limited.
- Analysts believe we will see a massive bearish downturn in LNG as supplies build across the globe, especially once Ras Laffan reopens.
- Production continues to be strong with supply quietly building.
NYMEX
Apr '26 – Open = $3.12, High = $3.16, Low = $3.05, Current = $3.09
- -$0.05 from 1 week ago
- -$1.01 from 1 year ago
- +$1.42 from 2 years ago
- 50-day avg = $3.54
- 20-day avg = $3.03
- 9-day avg = $3.12
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.15 (R2) = $3.25 PIVOT = $3.10 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.95 (S2) = $2.85
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (April '26 Start) = $3.87
- Summer '26 (April – Oct) = $3.39
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.53
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.50
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.54
- Calendar '27 = $3.91 Calendar '28 = $4.77
- Calendar '29 = $3.62 Calendar '30 = $3.62
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
- 2026 = $5.03
- 2025 = $3.45
- 2024 = $2.26
- 2023 = $2.73
- 2022 = $6.64
- 2021 = $3.84
- 2020 = $2.07
- 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $2.857
- 2025 avg = $3.568
- 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.935
- 2025 avg = $3.891
- 2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.051
- 2025 avg = $3.103
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 19.8Bcf, -0.6% w/w
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.8Bcf
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 6.5Bcf
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 112.3Bcf, +5.2% y/y
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 114.4Bcf
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 121.6Bcf
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Sharp warm up across Texas/Gulf/Rockies regions. West heat increases. Spring for the rest.
- 10 Day = Bullish
- 8-14 Day = Bullish
- 3-4 Week = Bearish
- April – June = Bullish
- May – July = Bullish
- June – Aug = Bullish
NE/New England = Limited demand in either direction. Some scattered showers closer to the coast. 50s-20s.
Mid-Atlantic = Limited rain with warming temps. 70s-50s.
SE/Gulf = Clear skies with light demand. 70s-50s.
Rockies/TX/S. Plains = Temps well above normal. 90s-50s.
West/SW = Heat remains with spiked CDDs. 100s-60s.
Pac NW/N. Plains = Light rain and warmer. 70s-40s.
Mid-Con = A nice warm up for the weekend before chilly temps return next week. 80s-30s.
RIG COUNT as of 3-13-26
- Total = 553, +2 w/w
- Oil @ 412 rigs, +1 w/w
- Natural Gas @ 133 rigs, +1 w/w
- Miscellaneous @ 8 rigs, no change w/w
- Rig count 1 year ago = 592
STORAGE – 3-19-26 Estimate = +39Bcf. Actual = +35Bcf
- Last year = -1Bcf. 5-yr avg = -29Bcf
- +177Bcf compared to this time last year
- +47Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,836Bcf
- At 1,883Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range
- Storage forecasts: 3-31-26 @ 1.85Tcf. 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
- NatGas = 40%
- Nuclear = 19%
- Coal = 16%
- Hydro = 6%
- Wind = 11%
- Solar = 8%
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1363. Resi = $0.1724
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 10:0AM, EST, 3-19-26
- CAISO = -$924 - $46
- ERCOT = -$38 - $0
- MISO = $20 - $26
- PJM = -$10 - $47
- NYISO = $26 - $32
- ISONE = $24 - $26
CRUDE
- 2026 = $87.16
- 2027 = $74.53
- 2028 = $70.86
- 2029 = $68.49
THE BOTTOM LINE
This war premium is a growing concern to us. CDDs for the western half of the U.S., paired with this premium could keep prices prevent the true downturn that is expected over the next 2 weeks.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions, 310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie