THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 3-17-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Oil prices stabilizing below $100 as tankers report safely navigating through the Strait of Hormuz.
- The Strait isn't fully open, but several tankers reported safely passing through over the weekend and continue to do so.
- NYMEX natgas prices are up a few cents so far this AM.
- LNG exports staying above 20Bcf/D for 5 straight days.
- Plaquemines LNG receives federal approval to increase daily exports by .45Bcf, for a total of 3.85Bcf/D.
- Cuba's power grid remains down, now looking for outside help.
- Virginia approves "small portable solar generation device" (max output of 1,200 watts) to be plugged in and used on balconies.
- That's ALMOST enough electricity to power a studio apartment.
NYMEX
Apr '26 – Open = $3.06, High = $3.09, Low = $3.00, Current = $3.07
- -$0.04 from 1 week ago
- -$0.99 from 1 year ago
- +$1.41 from 2 years ago
- 50-day avg = $3.57
- 20-day avg = $3.02
- 9-day avg = $3.09
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.15 (R2) = $3.30 PIVOT = $3.00 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.90 (S2) = $2.79
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (April '26 Start) = $3.73
- Summer '26 (April – Oct) = $3.29
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.34
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.43
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.42
- Calendar '27 = $3.80
- Calendar '28 = $4.63
- Calendar '29 = $3.64
- Calendar '30 = $3.62
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
- 2026 = $5.03
- 2025 = $3.45
- 2024 = $2.26
- 2023 = $2.73
- 2022 = $6.64
- 2021 = $3.84
- 2020 = $2.07
- 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $2.857
- 2025 avg = $3.568.
- 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.935
- 2025 avg = $3.891.
- 2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.051
- 2025 avg = $3.103.
MARKET DATA
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 20.3Bcf, +8.8% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.0Bcf.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 4.5Bcf.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 112.5Bcf, +4.9% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 114.0Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 116.5Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Cold in the Mid-Con/North w/ more snow. Getting cold in the Mid-Atlantic/South. Record heat out West. Major winter storms across upper Mid-Con/Great Lakes regions.
-
10 Day = Bullish
-
8-14 Day = Bullish
-
3-4 Week = Bearish
-
April – June = Bullish
-
May – July = Bullish
-
June – Aug = Bullish
Regional Weather Outlook
- NE/New England = Increasing HDDs, increasing precipitation. 50s-00s.
- Mid-Atlantic = Increasing HDDs with clear skies. 40s-20s.
- SE/Gulf = Above normal HDDs and mostly clear. 60s-30s.
- TX/S. Plains = Warming up with little HDDs/CDDs. 70s-40s.
- West/SW = CDDs increasing w/extreme heat warnings in effect. 100s-50s.
- Pac NW/N. Plains = Cold temps remain to the east. 70s-40s.
- Mid-Con = More snow with frigid, icy conditions. 20s-00s.
RIG COUNT as of 3-13-26
- Total = 553, +2 w/w.
- Oil @ 412 rigs, +1 w/w.
- Natural Gas @ 133 rigs, +1 w/w.
- Miscellaneous @ 8 rigs, no change w/w.
- Rig count 1 year ago = 592.
STORAGE – 3-19-26
- Estimate = +46Bcf. Actual = TBD
- Last year = +12Bcf. 5-yr avg = -50Bcf.
- +141Bcf compared to this time last year.
- -17Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,865Bcf.
- At 1,848Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
- Storage forecasts: 3-31-26 @ 1.90Tcf. 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
- NatGas = 42%
- Nuclear = 20%
- Coal = 17%
- Hydro = 6%
- Wind = 10%
- Solar = 5%
POWER PRICING
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1387. Resi = $0.1764
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 10:0AM, EST, 3-17-26:
- CAISO = -$37 - $23
- ERCOT = -$17 - $14
- MISO = $21 - $27
- PJM = $41 - $30
- NYISO = -$30 - $90
- ISONE = $37 - $42
CRUDE PRICES
- 2026 = $83.30
- 2027 = $70.54
- 2028 = $67.35
- 2029 = $65.94
THE BOTTOM LINE
Basis prices are up from recent lows, especially in the West. Blame that on the increase in CDDs brought on by the extreme heat in the region. This is ANOTHER example of how quickly prices can change direction.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions,310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie