THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 3-16-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Oil remains below $100 but WH expects prices will increase.
- Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
- NYMEX natgas prices start today down a few cents.
- Prices are down 1% on the day, up 2% w/w, and down 23% y/y.
- Weather and global stress supporting further bulls this week.
- DoE to invest $1.9BB for power upgrades.
- Active gas rigs are at a 2 and a half year high.
- A shift to milder weather later in the week keeping prices bearish.
- The Alaska LNG Project is gaining momentum due to Asian buyers seeking non-Middle East supply. More on that in this afternoon's Nightcap.
NYMEX
Apr '26 – Open = $3.18, High = $3.18, Low = $3.07, Current = $3.09 -$0.14 from 1 week ago -$0.97 from 1 year ago +$1.43 from 2 years ago 50-day avg = $3.58 20-day avg = $3.03 9-day avg = $3.09
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.15 (R2) = $3.30 PIVOT = $3.00 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.90 (S2) = $2.75
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
12 months (April '26 Start) = $3.84 Summer '26 (April – Oct) = $3.45 Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.45 Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.44 Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.41 Calendar '27 = $3.83 Calendar '28 = $4.61 Calendar '29 = $3.62 Calendar '30 = $3.64
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
2026 = $5.03 2025 = $3.45 2024 = $2.26 2023 = $2.73 2022 = $6.64 2021 = $3.84 2020 = $2.07 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $2.857 2025 avg = $3.568.
2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.935 2025 avg = $3.891.
2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.051 2025 avg = $3.103.
Market Data
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 20.0Bcf, +5.3% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.5Bcf.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 5.0Bcf.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 112.8Bcf, +5.8% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 113.2Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 114.2Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
NE/East/Mid-Atlantic enduring thunderstorms, tornado warnings, and high wind warnings. Major winter storms across upper Mid-Con/Great Lakes regions.
10 Day = Bullish 8-14 Day = Bullish 3-4 Week = Bearish
April – June = Bullish May – July = Bullish June – Aug = Bullish
NE/New England = Rain blanketing the region. 60s-20s. Mid-Atlantic = Rain w/ threat of tornadoes for inner lying areas. 70s-30s. SE/Gulf = Falling temps as storms move east. 80s-30s. TX/S. Plains = Cooler than normal w/clear skies. 60s-30s. West/SW = CDDs well above normal as heat hits as much as 30 degrees above normal. 100s-50s. Pac NW/N. Plains = Cool w/rain across the region. 70s-30s. Mid-Con = Blizzard like conditions in northern areas, falling temps. 20s-00s.
RIG COUNT
as of 3-13-26: Total = 553, +2 w/w. Oil @ 412 rigs, +1 w/w. Natural Gas @ 133 rigs, +1 w/w. Miscellaneous @ 8 rigs, no change w/w. Rig count 1 year ago = 592.
STORAGE
3-12-26 Estimate = -41Bcf. Actual = -38Bcf Last year = -64Bcf. 5-yr avg = -64Bcf. +141Bcf compared to this time last year. -17Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,865Bcf. At 1,848Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range. Storage forecasts: 3-31-26 @ 1.90Tcf. 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
NatGas = 41% Nuclear = 19% Coal = 15% Hydro = 5% Wind = 11% Solar = 9%
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1363. Resi = $0.1724
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 10:0AM, EST, 3-16-26
CAISO = $1 - $27 ERCOT = -$6 - $14 MISO = $29 - $32 PJM = $53 - $42 NYISO = -$31 - $53 ISONE = $76 - $80
CRUDE
2026 = $86.53, 2027 = $70.85, 2028 = $66.91, 2029 = $65.35
THE BOTTOM LINE
Current NYMEX prices continue to beat the EIA's revised (downward) 2026 average of $3.81 for most of the remaining months. Basis prices at the delivery points we care about continue to be below average.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions, 310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie