Natural Gas & Oil
June ’26 NYMEX NatGas Trading range today: $3.20 to $3.36.
Today’s market finished flat on the day, falling from 16-week highs seen yesterday.
The market will continue to price in weak storage injections until we see production recover to near record levels.
Out West, isolated pipeline closures in East LA are starting to recover after fire caused closures.
Hopes of a breakthrough between the US and Iran prompted heavy profit taking today as oil prices ended the week down from the start of the week.
Short positions were also cleared out in case an unlikely peace treaty was struck over the weekend that could tank oil prices $10 or $15 quickly.
LNG
Ongoing maintenance at the 9 primary terminals drops exports to 16.4Bcf/D in June.
Compare that to 17.1Bcf/D in May.
Once we see maintenance end, we can expect exports to return to record setting levels, pushing natgas prices up further.
Power
ERCOT and PJM are reporting stable frequency despite heavy cooling demand that is expected to increase into next week.
Evening ramp ups for CAISO and ERCOT keep natgas prices elevated.
Today’s Drivers
The Bulls – ($3.35 to $3.85 range) – Weak storage injection, triple digit weather next week, production remains below May averages, the market staying above the psychological $3.20.
The Bears – ($3.05 to $2.80 range) – Storage staying above the 5-year average, LNG maintenance season extended, Solar continues to suppress midday gas demand.
Today’s Special – Summer Surge
We expect prices to take off next week as triple digit temps range from AZ, throughout TX and the Plains regions.
Solar may be stifled in the TX and Plains regions next week as storms are forecasted to linger through the week.
Without strong solar to meet midday demand in these regions, natgas will be called upon.
Market takeaway
The two most important takes going into next week remain LNG maintenance ending and the expansion of a national cooling demand.
Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap