Natural Gas & Oil
June ’26 NYMEX NatGas Trading range today: $3.21 to $3.36.
Today’s market finished with a clearly bullish shift led by a smaller than expected storage injection, hotter weather forecasts, and LNG exports expected to increase.
Today’s Storage Report confirmed injections are no longer overwhelming the market.
A sustained move above $3.40 for the prompt month could accelerate CTA/fund buying.
Basically, we could see the investment side buying out of fear, extending and increasing any rally in the short term.
The geopolitical risk premium for Oil remains in effect.
LNG
Maintenance continues at Freeport, Cameron, Golden Pass, and Sabine Pass.
Delfin Midstream has been approved for the first ever US floating LNG export terminal off the coast of Louisiana, with exports expected to begin by 2030.
Power
Solar keeps bailing ERCOT out for midday demand.
PJM cooling demand is expected to increase significantly next week.
Today’s Drivers
The Bulls – ($3.35 to $3.85 range) – Weak storage injection, hotter weather, production remains below May averages, the market reclaimed key technical levels.
The Bears – ($3.05 to $2.80 range) – Storage staying above the 5-year average, LNG maintenance season extended, Solar continues to suppress midday gas demand.
Today’s Special – Texas Solar
The EIA forecasts that ERCOT solar generation will surpass coal generation for the first time on an annual basis in 2026.
To those who don’t think that’s a big deal, you haven’t been paying attention to how much coal is still being burned to generate electricity at many power plants. Right, California?
Solar generation shares have increased from 4% to 12% from 2021 to 2025 while coal generation has fallen from 19% to 13% in that same timeframe.
Texas, often ridiculed and despised for explosive gas-fired load growth, is now leading the US in new solar builds with roughly 40% of all new solar capacity landing in Texas.
Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap