Natural Gas & Oil
March '26 Trading range: $2.96 to $3.14
Natgas prices are down about 10% from yesterday's high.
There's very little to push natgas prices up right now.
LNG
- Exports so far in March are slightly below Feb '26 records. Feb '26 set the record for a month with 18.8Bcf/D.
- March '26 is averaging only 18Bcf/D but still the highest March on record.
- American Gas association put 18Bcf/D as the new normal.
Power
Power prices eased throughout today as milder weather is expected, pushing down HDDs but not getting too warm that CDDs move above average.
Forward looks remain bullish as summer heat, increasing AI/DC demand, and capacity shock (especially for ERCOT and PJM) are all major factors.
Today's Drivers
The Bears – The weather, record production, LNG exports taking a slight dip, and storage reports expected to show injections ahead of schedule.
The Bulls – Hard to find bulls right now other than some regional weather and LNG exports.
Today's Special
Traders seem to feel that no new information today keeps NYMEX natgas at or slightly above $3.00 for now, accepting slight downward movement but still paying attention to a tightened-up balance between production/supply and demand.
On the global front, today's sharp reversal in direction for oil, natgas, and LNG is being attributed to "easing geopolitical tensions" (by the media) and "structural redefining" (by the trade desks).
That means the media hasn't a clue and traders hit their number and realized there's limited/no support for a further bull run.
Maybe they're buying the dip before the next manufactured bull run kicks off.
It wouldn't be the first time.
Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap