THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 5-8-26
May 8, 2026 by Sean Dookie
THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 5-8-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
• Crude and Brent are down 7% on the week as a tense standoff and continued closing of SoH keeps both commodities volatile. • NYMEX gas prices are slightly up this morning as mildly bullish fundamentals enter the short-term market. • Storage is more bullish than bearish as weaker than earlier anticipated injections keep showing up each week. • The storage surplus is narrowing with weak injections. • Production isn't growing aggressively like it did in 2024 & 2025. • Mild national weather is limiting bulls right now. • LNG is the new big bull, and despite the last few days of exports, this bull will gain strength. It's not going away. • Storage injection • ERCOT/Southeast CDDs are building earlier than normal.
NYMEX
June '26 – Open = $2.78, High = $2.84, Low = $2.76, Current = $2.83
• +$0.07 from 1 week ago • -$0.79 from 1 year ago • +$0.55 from 2 years ago
• 50-day avg = $2.85 • 20-day avg = $2.67 • 9-day avg = $2.72
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $2.95 (R2) = $3.10
PIVOT = $2.75
SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.70 (S2) = $2.60
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
• 12 months (June '26 Start) = $3.39 • Summer '26 (June – Oct) = $3.03 • Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $3.92 • Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.19 • Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.23 • Calendar '27 = $3.52 • Calendar '28 = $3.47 • Calendar '29 = $3.68 • Calendar '30 = $3.64
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year – 2026 thru May
• 2026 = $4.15 • 2025 = $3.45 • 2024 = $2.26 • 2023 = $2.73 • 2022 = $6.64 • 2021 = $3.84 • 2020 = $2.07 • 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
• 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through May '26) = $2.309 • 2025 avg = $3.568 • 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through May '26) = $3.195 • 2025 avg = $3.891 • 2026 Transco Z5 South FoM Index avg (through May '26) = $6.45 • 2025 avg = $3.608
MARKET DATA
• LNG EXPORTS Est. = 17.7Bcf, -5.9% w/w • MEXICO EXPORTS = 5.8Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG • CANADIAN IMPORTS = 3.7Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand • DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 110.9Bcf, +4.5% y/y • SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 110.3Bcf • DEMAND – Today's Est.= 102.6Bcf • 7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Moderate
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Southwest heat is the big bull today and into the weekend. Texas/Gulf storms are the wildcard for power demand.
• 6-10 Day = Even • 8-14 Day = Even • 3-4 Week = Bearish • May – July = Bullish • June – Aug = Even • July – Sep = Bearish
Regional Weather
• NE/New England = Mild to low HDDs/CDDs. 50s-30s • Mid-Atlantic = Cooler temps pushing down CDDs. 70s-50s • SE/Gulf = Warmer with increasing humidity, and some storms. 70s-60s • Texas/S. Plains = Humid, stormy in parts, increasing CDDs. 80s-50s • West/SW = Beautiful weather with savage heat inland & SW corner. 90s-50s • Pac NW/N. Plains = Pleasantly mild with no worries at all. 70s-40s • Great Lakes = Stormy with limited HDDs & CDDs. 60s-50s
RIG COUNT as of 5-1-26
• Total = 547, +3 w/w • Oil @ 408 rigs, +1 w/w • Natural Gas @ 130 rigs, +1 w/w • Miscellaneous @ 9 rigs, + 1w/w • Rig count 1 year ago = 584
STORAGE – 5-7-26
• Estimate = +72Bcf • Actual = +63Bcf • Last year = +108Bcf • 5-yr avg = +82Bcf • Storage levels are +75Bcf compared to this time last year • Storage levels are +139Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 2,066Bcf • At 2,205Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range • Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 3.9Tcf. 3-31-27 @ 1.7Tcf to 2.0Tcf
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
• NatGas = 41% • Nuclear = 18% • Coal = 14% • Hydro = 5% • Wind = 13% • Solar = 9% (peaks higher intraday)
POWER PRICING
• kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1412. Resi = $0.1805
REAL TIME POWER (MW) PRICING RANGE on 5-8-26
• CAISO = -$78 - $104 • ERCOT = $12 - $14 • MISO = -$42 - $26 • PJM = $37 - $42 • NYISO = $15 - $16 • ISONE = $33 - $35
CRUDE PRICES
• 2026 = $83.26 • 2027 = $71.79 • 2028 = $70.65 • 2029 = $67.51
THE BOTTOM LINE
Same message as yesterday – the negative priced months for SoCal CG and PG&E CG Basis are gone but still show a slight discount to historicals after jumping as much as $0.70 in the last 30 days. Holding out for an additional 40.10 savings could cost you dearly when the market turns as quickly as it does.
FP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Contact:Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions, 310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie