THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 5-6-26

May 6, 2026 by Sean Dookie

THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 5-6-26

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

• Crude and Brent are falling hard so far today, both down as much as 10% (before the bell) on hopes of peace talks in the Middle East.
• NYMEX gas prices are down again today on profit-taking and LNG exports falling to the lowest in 3 months.
• The lack of CDDs across the West and South is being offset by prolonged HDDs along the norther border.
• Tomorrow's storage injection estimate keeps falling, now at only +63Bcf. If that number hits, expect prices to jump.
• WAHA continues to see steep negative pricing while most other delivery points tighten up, especially in the SW/West regions.
• Increasing Basis prices in the West tell us there is growing concern for supply moving west once Costa Azul LNG opens in July '26.
• Stable power demand today reported from all major ISOs.

NYMEX

June '26 – Open = $2.78, High = $2.78, Low = $2.69, Current = $2.72

• +$0.07 from 1 week ago
• -$0.90 from 1 year ago
• +$0.44 from 2 years ago
• 50-day avg = $2.86
• 20-day avg = $2.67
• 9-day avg = $2.67

RESISTANCE = (R1) = $2.95 (R2) = $3.10
PIVOT = $2.65
SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.60 (S2) = $2.40

NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS

• 12 months (June '26 Start) = $3.45
• Summer '26 (June – Oct) = $3.06
• Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.01
• Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.24
• Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.29
• Calendar '27 = $3.59
• Calendar '28 = $3.53
• Calendar '29 = $3.70
• Calendar '30 = $3.70

NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year – 2026 thru May

• 2026 = $4.15
• 2025 = $3.45
• 2024 = $2.26
• 2023 = $2.73
• 2022 = $6.64
• 2021 = $3.84
• 2020 = $2.07
• 2019 = $2.62

BASIS

We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.

• 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through May '26) = $2.309
• 2025 avg = $3.568
• 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through May '26) = $3.195
• 2025 avg = $3.891
• 2026 Transco Z5 South FoM Index avg (through May '26) = $6.45
• 2025 avg = $3.608

MARKET DATA

LNG EXPORTS Est. = 17.7Bcf, -7.9% w/w.

MEXICO EXPORTS = 7.0Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG.

CANADIAN IMPORTS = 4.5Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.

DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 110.7Bcf, +3.4% y/y.

SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 110.8Bcf.

DEMAND – Today's Est.= 100.4Bcf.

7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Moderate

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS

Heat in the SW, humidity in the Panhandle, snow in the Rockies, and cold in the NE/MW are the demand drivers today.

Forecasts:

• 6-10 Day = Bearish
• 8-14 Day = Bearish
• 3-4 Week = Bullish
• May – July = Bullish
• June – Aug = Even
• July – Sep = Bearish

Regional Weather:

• NE/New England = Slightly bullish demand. Lots of rain. 70s-40s.
• Mid-Atlantic = Rain moves in with warmer temps. 80s-50s.
• SE/Gulf = Moderate CDDs with storms moving in. 80s-60s.
• Texas/S. Plains = Clearing skies & Increasing CDDs. 90s-30s.
• West/SW = Clear skies and warmer days. 80s-50s.
• Pac NW/N. Plains = Light demand in both directions. 80s-20s.
• Great Lakes = Slight HDDs with storms clearing. 60s-30s.

RIG COUNT as of 5-1-26

• Total = 547, +3 w/w.
• Oil @ 408 rigs, +1 w/w.
• Natural Gas @ 130 rigs, +1 w/w.
• Miscellaneous @ 9 rigs, + 1w/w.
• Rig count 1 year ago = 584.

STORAGE – 5-7-26

• Estimate = +63Bcf. Actual = TBD
• Last year = +108Bcf. 5-yr avg = +82Bcf.
• Storage levels are +116Bcf compared to this time last year.
• Storage levels are +153Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,989Bcf.
• At 2,142Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
• Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 3.9Tcf. 3-31-27 @ 1.7Tcf to 2.0Tcf

NATIONAL POWER GENERATION

• NatGas = 42%
• Nuclear = 20%
• Coal = 17%
• Hydro = 5%
• Wind = 10%
• Solar = 6% (peaks higher intraday)

kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1412. Resi = $0.1805.

REAL TIME POWER (MW) PRICING RANGE on 5-6-26

• CAISO = -$150 - $78
• ERCOT = $28 - $29
• MISO = -$31 - $41
• PJM = $35 - $91
• NYISO = $46 - $50
• ISONE = $45 - $50

CRUDE

• 2026 = $85.88
• 2027 = $72.34
• 2028 = $71.47
• 2029 = $68.47

THE BOTTOM LINE

Outside of some HDDs and LNG, everything is leaning bearish. NYMEX prices may fall a little further if summer power demand fails to show up on time. Other than that, there's not a lot to push NYMEX prices down much further. Index is soft right now and we'll play it out until driving factors change direction.

FP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.

Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions
310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie