THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 5-5-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Crude and Brent are down today as "Project Freedom" starts up.
- PF is an attempt by the US Navy to escort ships through the SoH, with 2 successful runs yesterday and more expected.
- NYMEX gas prices are backing down this morning after a 3-day rally that took prices to their most expensive in 4 weeks.
- Weak near-term demand and falling LNG exports are to thank.
- Production is seen to be improving but still off the anticipated pace for this Shoulder Season that's a bull waiting to run.
- Another factor – technical resistance as June '26 (so far) failed to break the $2.90 mark that would have fueled the rally higher.
- There are numerous regional grid reliability concerns today for ERCOT (heat), CAISO (evening only), and MISO/PJM (storms).
NYMEX
June '26 – Open = $2.85, High = $2.86, Low = $2.81, Current = $2.83
- +$0.23 from 1 week ago
- -$0.77 from 1 year ago
- +$0.91 from 2 years ago
- 50-day avg = $2.86
- 20-day avg = $2.67
- 9-day avg = $2.66
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $2.95 (R2) = $3.10 PIVOT = $2.75 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.60 (S2) = $2.40
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (June '26 Start) = $3.49
- Summer '26 (June – Oct) = $3.12
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.03
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.25
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.28
- Calendar '27 = $3.60
- Calendar '28 = $3.73
- Calendar '29 = $3.72
- Calendar '30 = $3.73
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
- 2026 = $4.54
- 2025 = $3.45
- 2024 = $2.26
- 2023 = $2.73
- 2022 = $6.64
- 2021 = $3.84
- 2020 = $2.07
- 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.580
- 2025 avg = $3.568
- 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $3.504
- 2025 avg = $3.891
- 2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.593
- 2025 avg = $3.103
MARKET DATA
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 18.0Bcf, -6.8% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.0Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 4.0Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 110.1Bcf, +3.2% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 116.5Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 103.1Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Moderate
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Snow in the Rockies, heat in Texas, storms in the Mid-Con and Great Lakes.
- 6-10 Day = Bearish
- 8-14 Day = Bearish
- 3-4 Week = Bullish
- May – July = Bullish
- June – Aug = Even
- July – Sep = Bearish
Regional Weather
- NE/New England = Bearish conditions with more rain. 80s-50s.
- Mid-Atlantic = Clear skies, warmer, increasing CDDs. 80s-60s.
- SE/Gulf = Moderate CDDs with storms later. 80s-60s.
- Texas/S. Plains = Increasing CDDs. 90s-40s.
- West/SW = Cool temps across the region with some rain to the east. 70s-50s.
- Pac NW/N. Plains = Bearish demand in either direction. 70s-20s.
- Great Lakes = Modest HDDs with storms across the region. 50s-40s.
RIG COUNT as of 5-1-26
- Total = 547, +3 w/w.
- Oil @ 408 rigs, +1 w/w.
- Natural Gas @ 130 rigs, +1 w/w.
- Miscellaneous @ 9 rigs, + 1w/w.
- Rig count 1 year ago = 584.
STORAGE – 5-7-26
- Estimate = +72Bcf. Actual = TBD
- Last year = +108Bcf.
- 5-yr avg = +82Bcf.
- Storage levels are +116Bcf compared to this time last year.
- Storage levels are +153Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,989Bcf.
- At 2,142Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
- Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 3.9Tcf. 3-31-27 @ 1.7Tcf to 2.0Tcf
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
- NatGas = 42%
- Nuclear = 19%
- Coal = 14%
- Hydro = 7%
- Wind = 11%
- Solar = 7% (peaks higher intraday)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1412. Resi = $0.1805.
REAL TIME POWER (MW) PRICING RANGE on 5-5-26
- CAISO = -$53 - $125
- ERCOT = -$38 - $4
- MISO = -$32 - $15
- PJM = -$38 - $90
- NYISO = $31 - $60
- ISONE = $34 - $36
CRUDE
- 2026 = $89.44
- 2027 = $74.77
- 2028 = $71.95
- 2029 = $68.19
THE BOTTOM LINE
Prices are separating. Basis is increasing. NYMEX has room to fall over the next week. May want to buy Basis in the West while the discounts can still be gotten, and wait on NYMEX, if you are so inclined to gamble.
FP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions,310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie