THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 5-4-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Crude and Brent are up a few percent so far today.
- War premiums expected to continue until SoH reopens.
- NYMEX gas prices are up as much as $0.10 this morning.
- California Basis prices are up $0.30 from recent lows.
- Production remains down from recent highs.
- LNG exports are also down but still strong overall.
- Cooler weather for the North/NE elevated HDDs this weekend.
- Cooler/wetter weather in the Mid-Con this week limiting CDDs.
- Power prices are seeing upward pressure as natgas climbs.
- Power pricing looks to be turning to summer demand focus.
- Summer demand is bullish for ERCOT/MISO/PJM.
- CAISO remains exposed to evening ramp-up coverage.
NYMEX
June '26 – Open = $2.78, High = $2.87, Low = $2.75, Current = $2.85
- +$0.25 from 1 week ago
- -$0.71 from 1 year ago
- +$0.90 from 2 years ago
- 50-day avg = $2.87
- 20-day avg = $2.67
- 9-day avg = $2.65
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $2.95 (R2) = $3.10 PIVOT = $2.75 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.60 (S2) = $2.40
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (June '26 Start) = $3.45
- Summer '26 (June – Oct) = $3.05
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $3.99
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.26
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.29
- Calendar '27 = $3.58
- Calendar '28 = $3.72
- Calendar '29 = $3.70
- Calendar '30 = $3.71
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
- 2026 = $4.54
- 2025 = $3.45
- 2024 = $2.26
- 2023 = $2.73
- 2022 = $6.64
- 2021 = $3.84
- 2020 = $2.07
- 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.580
- 2025 avg = $3.568
- 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $3.504
- 2025 avg = $3.891
- 2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.593
- 2025 avg = $3.103
Market Data
- LNG EXPORTS Est. = 19.1Bcf, -2.7% w/w
- MEXICO EXPORTS = 5.8Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG
- CANADIAN IMPORTS = 3.8Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand
- DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 109.7Bcf, +3.1% y/y
- SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 112.5Bcf
- DEMAND – Today's Est.= 103.3Bcf
- 7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Moderate
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Mildly bearish in the near-term w/localized bullish pockets in the TX/South/SE regions. Still Shoulder Season soft.
- 6-10 Day = Bearish
- 8-14 Day = Bearish
- 3-4 Week = Bullish
- May – July = Bullish
- June – Aug = Even
- July – Sep = Bearish
Regional Weather
- NE/New England = Bearish conditions with slight rain. 70s-50s
- Mid-Atlantic = Neutral to bearish w/mostly clear skies. 80s-50s
- SE/Gulf = Slightly bullish power burns today. 80s-50s
- Texas/S. Plains = Bullish across the region. 80s-60s
- West/SW = Bearish with some rain to the north, desert cools. 80s-50s
- Pac NW/N. Plains = Clear skies w/warm temps. Enjoy! 80s-20s
- Great Lakes = Enjoy today's warmth b/c colder temps are coming. Light rain across the region today. 70s-50s
RIG COUNT as of 5-1-26
- Total = 547, +3 w/w
- Oil @ 408 rigs, +1 w/w
- Natural Gas @ 130 rigs, +1 w/w
- Miscellaneous @ 9 rigs, + 1w/w
- Rig count 1 year ago = 584
STORAGE – 5-7-26
- Estimate = +73Bcf. Actual = TBD
- Last year = +108Bcf
- 5-yr avg = +82Bcf
- Storage levels are +116Bcf compared to this time last year
- Storage levels are +153Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,989Bcf
- At 2,142Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range
- Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 3.9Tcf. 3-31-27 @ 1.7Tcf to 2.0Tcf
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
- NatGas = 41%
- Nuclear = 18%
- Coal = 16%
- Hydro = 5%
- Wind = 10%
- Solar = 10% (peaks higher intraday)
- kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1450. Resi = $0.1805
REAL TIME POWER (MW) PRICING RANGE on 5-4-26
- CAISO = -$125 - $201
- ERCOT = -$38 - $1
- MISO = -$45 - $15
- PJM = -$38 - $24
- NYISO = $18 - $73
- ISONE = $30 - $32
CRUDE
- 2026 = $91.25
- 2027 = $75.88
- 2028 = $70.95
- 2029 = $66.90
THE BOTTOM LINE
Combined NYMEX & Basis prices are up this morning. Prices are still good, just not as good this time last week. We could see a downward correction later this week. Production needs to improve to increase bears.
FP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie