THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 5-26-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Crude sits around $93 (-4%). Brent sits around $99 (-4%).
- Surging optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal has oil prices down even w/overnight US strikes in the Persian Gulf.
- Natgas up this morning, inching closer to the $3.00 pivotal point.
- Power sector demand for TX/SE regions jumped 3.7Bcf/D y/y.
- Add to that, extreme heat in Mexico is triggering a major surge in US exports for that region on the eve of Costa Azul LNG opening.
- Production remains stable with a slight uptick in recent days.
- We're catching a slight break with LNG exports staying below average as maintenance continues to wind down.
- Cloud coverage across Texas/S. Plains, and SE regions is expected to limit solar midday suppression.
- We could see spot prices increase substantially this week with the increasing CDDs and limited Solar in southern regions.
- PJM is already seeing violent price spikes in today's spot market.
NYMEX
June '26 – Open = $2.90, High = $2.97, Low = $2.85, Current = $2.97
- +$0.07 from 1 week ago
- -$0.33 from 1 year ago
- +$0.45 from 2 years ago
- 50-day avg = $2.83
- 20-day avg = $2.86
- 9-day avg = $2.97
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.12 (R2) = $3.26 PIVOT = $3.04 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.94 (S2) = $2.82
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (June '26 Start) = $3.30
- Summer '26 (June – Oct) = $3.01
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $3.75
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.11
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.19
- Calendar '27 = $3.36 Calendar '28 = $3.66
- Calendar '29 = $3.68 Calendar '30 = $3.63
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year – thru May '26
- 2026 = $4.15
- 2025 = $3.45
- 2024 = $2.26
- 2023 = $2.73
- 2022 = $6.64
- 2021 = $3.84
- 2020 = $2.07
- 2019 = $2.62
BASIS – Further tightening of prices in most regions.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $2.309
- 2025 avg = $3.568.
- 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $3.195
- 2025 avg = $3.891.
- 2026 Transco Z5 South FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $6.45
- 2025 avg = $3.608.
KEY METRICS
LNG EXPORTS = 18.3Bcf, +2.8% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.0Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 4.0Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 110.1Bcf, +1.9% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 119.8Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 101.5Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Moderate
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Everything is hot east of Denver. Severe storms for the TX region. Flood risks in the Southeast.
- 6-10 Day = Bearish
- 8-14 Day = Bearish
- 3-4 Week = Bearish
- June – Aug = Bullish
- July – Sep = Bullish
- Aug – Oct = Even
Regional Weather
- NE/New England = Moderate CDDs. 80s-60s.
- Mid-Atlantic = Muggy with increasing CDDs. Storms. 80s-60s.
- SE/Gulf = Hot, humid, w/storms increasing flood risk. 80s-70s.
- Texas/S. Plains = Bullish if the heat holds and storms clear. 80s-60s.
- West/SW = Cool & breezy along the coast, slight CDDs inland. 70s-50s.
- Pac NW/N. Plains = Warmer w/storms heavy in some areas. 80s-50s.
- Mid-Con = Scattered showers are holding CDDs from taking off. 80s-60s.
RIG COUNT as of 5-22-26:
- Total = 558, +7 w/w.
- Oil @ 425 rigs, +10 w/w.
- Natural Gas @ 125 rigs, -3 w/w.
- Miscellaneous @ 8 rigs, unchanged w/w.
- Rig count 1 year ago = 566.
STORAGE – 5-28-26 Estimate = +95Bcf. Actual + TBD
- Last year = +101Bcf. 5-yr avg = +99Bcf.
- Storage levels are +33Bcf compared to this time last year.
- Storage levels are +149Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 2,242Bcf.
- At 2,391Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
- Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 3.9Tcf. 3-31-27 @ 1.7Tcf to 2.0Tcf
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION:
- NatGas = 38-40%
- Nuclear = 17-19%
- Coal = 14-15%
- Hydro = 5-7%
- Wind = 11-13%
- Solar = 9-11% (US average by midday is 18%)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1437. Resi = $0.1765.
REAL TIME POWER (MW) PRICING RANGE on 5-26-26:
- CAISO = -$132 - $46
- ERCOT = $15 - $141
- SPP = $27 - $33
- MISO = -$28 - $48
- PJM = -$73 - $2409
- NYISO = $27 - $30
CRUDE
- 2026 = $86.88
- 2027 = $74.80
- 2028 = $70.60
- 2029 = $68.10
THE BOTTOM LINE
We're now in Bid Week. June is rolling off as prompt month and July is stepping up, adding further focus on summer demand. There's not much to do this week as we wait for downward pressure on forward prices to show up next week due to below normal temps dropping CDDs dramatically for most of the US.
RFPES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Contact Information:
- Sean Dookie, 310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com
- Ricco Washington, 949-554-9062, rwashington@rfpes.com
- rfpes.com, Follow us on LinkedIn @ RFP Energy Solutions, LLC