THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 5-21-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Brent trading around $109. Crude trading around $102.
- Oil prices are under pressure today from a stronger US $ and revived hope in the Middle East that a deal will soon be reached.
- NYMEX gas prices fell 3.5% on the day after weather forecasts for the eastern half shifted cooler.
- Production is increasing w/EIA upping 2026 daily avg to 110.6Bcf.
- NYMEX prices are expected to climb as high as $4.00 for Q3 and Q4 2026 before falling below $3.00 in Q2 2027.
- LNG exports are rebounding quickly after falling 10% below April.
- Transco/TX Gas Trans/Alliance/Equitrans all starting planned maintenance – expect Basis in these regions to increase.
- PJM is seeing massive spot price spikes, paying $180/MW recently, while CAISO paid $3/MW thanks to midday solar.
NYMEX
June '26 – Open = $3.03, High = $3.06, Low = $3.00, Current = $3.01 +$0.20 from 1 week ago -$0.29 from 1 year ago +$0.30 from 2 years ago 50-day avg = $2.84 20-day avg = $2.79 9-day avg = $2.93
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.10 (R2) = $3.22 PIVOT = $3.00 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.97 (S2) = $2.84
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (June '26 Start) = $3.42
- Summer '26 (June – Oct) = $3.16
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $3.87
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.15
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.21
- Calendar '27 = $3.48
- Calendar '28 = $3.70
- Calendar '29 = $3.70
- Calendar '30 = $3.65
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year – thru May '26
- 2026 = $4.15
- 2025 = $3.45
- 2024 = $2.26
- 2023 = $2.73
- 2022 = $6.64
- 2021 = $3.84
- 2020 = $2.07
- 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $2.309
- 2025 avg = $3.568
- 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $3.195
- 2025 avg = $3.891
- 2026 Transco Z5 South FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $6.45
- 2025 avg = $3.608
SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATA
LNG EXPORTS = 18.1Bcf, +3.0% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 7.0Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 5.5Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 109.3Bcf, +1.4% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 119.1Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 97.8Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Moderate
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Bullish demand but not from heat today. Today, the demand comes from lack of solar as storms cover the Plains.
- 6-10 Day = Bearish
- 8-14 Day = Bearish
- 3-4 Week = Even
- June – Aug = Bullish
- July – Sep = Bullish
- Aug – Oct = Even
Regional Weather Outlook:
- NE/New England = Falling CDDs, rain cutting demand. 60s-30s.
- Mid-Atlantic = Falling CDDs w/rain cutting demand. 90s-60s.
- SE/Gulf = Moderate CDDs, humid & stormy. 90s-70s.
- Texas/S. Plains = Milder CDDs with storms throughout. 80s-60s.
- West/SW = Increasing CDDs especially away from the coast. 90s-60s.
- Pac NW/N. Plains = Limited demand in either direction. 70s-30s.
- Mid-Con = Slight HDDs from colder temps overnight. 60s-40s.
RIG COUNT as of 5-15-26:
- Total = 551, +3 w/w.
- Oil @ 415 rigs, +5 w/w.
- Natural Gas @ 128 rigs, -1 w/w.
- Miscellaneous @ 9 rigs, -1 w/w.
- Rig count 1 year ago = 576.
STORAGE – 5-21-26
- Estimate = +92Bcf. Actual = +101Bcf
- Last year = +120Bcf. 5-yr avg = +91Bcf.
- Storage levels are +33Bcf compared to this time last year.
- Storage levels are +149Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 2,242Bcf.
- At 2,391Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
- Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 3.9Tcf. 3-31-27 @ 1.7Tcf to 2.0Tcf
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION:
- NatGas = 40%
- Nuclear = 18%
- Coal = 14%
- Hydro = 5%
- Wind = 13%
- Solar = 10% (US average by midday is 18%)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1437. Resi = $0.1765.
REAL TIME POWER (MW) PRICING RANGE on 5-21-26:
- CAISO = -$4 - $23
- ERCOT = -$10 - $15
- SPP = $22 - $29
- MISO = -$32 - $30
- PJM = $18 - $40
- NYISO = -$38 - $248
CRUDE
- 2026 = $88.98
- 2027 = $75.27
- 2028 = $70.84
- 2029 = $68.33
THE BOTTOM LINE
Don't get cocky. We have maintenance season starting (restricts capacity), expanding CDDs, increasing LNG exports, modest productions, ERCOT continues to point to an extremely high summer peak demand. Don't forget that wind & solar are weather sensitive and summer storms reduce solar every year.
FP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie