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THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 5-19-26
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THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 5-19-26

May 19, 2026 by Sean Dookie

LNG exportsNYMEXNatural Gasbasis pricingcrude oilenergy marketspower generationstorage reportweather-forecasts

THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 5-19-26

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

  • Brent trading around $108. Crude trading around $100.
  • Middle East concerns continue to keep prices well above average.
  • NYMEX gas prices are up for a 4th straight day as the market feel is "constructive to neutral" as said by a trusted trader this morning.
  • Weather driven buying continues this morning and will continue through the week as no (smart) trader goes into Memorial Day celebrations with open positions.
  • Thursday's storage report estimate is 40Bcf below last year's injection for the same week.
  • Commonwealth LNG officially moving forward, online by 2030.
  • Freeport reporting issues, freeing up gas for the C&I market.
  • Power market reporting strong HDDs building all week.
  • All grids reporting "stable" so far this morning.

NYMEX

June '26 – Open = $3.03, High = $3.08, Low = $3.00, Current = $3.04

  • +$0.20 from 1 week ago
  • -$0.12 from 1 year ago
  • +$0.29 from 2 years ago

Averages:

  • 50-day avg = $2.84
  • 20-day avg = $2.76
  • 9-day avg = $2.86

Technical Levels:

  • RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.10 (R2) = $3.22
  • PIVOT = $3.04
  • SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.95 (S2) = $2.86

NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS

  • 12 months (June '26 Start) = $3.44
  • Summer '26 (June – Oct) = $3.18
  • Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $3.90
  • Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.16
  • Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.21
  • Calendar '27 = $3.50
  • Calendar '28 = $3.71
  • Calendar '29 = $3.70
  • Calendar '30 = $3.65

NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year – thru May '26:

  • 2026 = $4.15
  • 2025 = $3.45
  • 2024 = $2.26
  • 2023 = $2.73
  • 2022 = $6.64
  • 2021 = $3.84
  • 2020 = $2.07
  • 2019 = $2.62

BASIS

We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.

Regional Pricing:

  • 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $2.309 (2025 avg = $3.568)
  • 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $3.195 (2025 avg = $3.891)
  • 2026 Transco Z5 South FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $6.45 (2025 avg = $3.608)

SUPPLY & DEMAND DATA

  • LNG EXPORTS = 17.9Bcf, +1.7% w/w
  • MEXICO EXPORTS = 7.2Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG
  • CANADIAN IMPORTS = 5.9Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand
  • DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 108.9Bcf, +1.3% y/y
  • SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 113.2Bcf
  • DEMAND – Today's Est.= 78.8Bcf
  • 7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Moderate

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS

Above normal temps continue for most of the US. Storms from TX to NY.

Forecast Periods:

  • 6-10 Day = Bullish
  • 8-14 Day = Bullish
  • 3-4 Week = Even
  • May – July = Bullish
  • June – Aug = Even
  • July – Sep = Bearish

Regional Weather:

  • NE/New England = Bullish CDDs w/some rain. 90s-60s
  • Mid-Atlantic = Bullish CDDs and mostly clear. 90s-60s
  • SE/Gulf = Bullish CDDs, storms moving in. 90s-70s
  • Texas/S. Plains = Humid with storms capping the heat. 90s-70s
  • West/SW = Warmer but not extreme. 90s-50s
  • Pac NW/N. Plains = Next to zero demand either direction. 60s-30s
  • Mid-Con = Storms with limited CDDs. 80s-50s

RIG COUNT as of 5-15-26

  • Total = 551, +3 w/w
  • Oil @ 415 rigs, +5 w/w
  • Natural Gas @ 128 rigs, -1 w/w
  • Miscellaneous @ 9 rigs, -1 w/w
  • Rig count 1 year ago = 576

STORAGE – 5-21-26

  • Estimate = +81Bcf. Actual = TBD
  • Last year = +120Bcf
  • 5-yr avg = +91Bcf
  • Storage levels are +51Bcf compared to this time last year
  • Storage levels are +140Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 2,150Bcf
  • At 2,290Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range
  • Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 3.9Tcf. 3-31-27 @ 1.7Tcf to 2.0Tcf

NATIONAL POWER GENERATION

  • NatGas = 39%
  • Nuclear = 19%
  • Coal = 15%
  • Hydro = 7%
  • Wind = 11%
  • Solar = 9% (peaks higher intraday)

kWh PRICE AVERAGE:

  • C&I = $0.1437
  • Resi = $0.1805

REAL TIME POWER (MW) PRICING RANGE on 5-19-26

  • CAISO = -$30 - $40
  • ERCOT = -$158 - $30
  • SPP = -$24 - $90
  • MISO = -$32 - $224
  • PJM = -$17 - $24
  • NYISO = $48 - $52

CRUDE PRICING

  • 2026 = $95.89
  • 2027 = $77.92
  • 2028 = $72.57
  • 2029 = $69.78

THE BOTTOM LINE

NYMEX and Basis prices are tightening up. The focus is/has shifted to summer demand, LNG rebounding, and storage injections that are not hitting like they were last year. We've probably seen the cheapest prices we will see this year, but fixed prices are still attractive.

FP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.

Contact Information:Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions
310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com
X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie

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THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 5-19-26 | RFP Energy Solutions