THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 5-15-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
• The California Direct Access for 3rd Party Supply Lottery is coming up in the first week of June. Direct Access allows the buyer to buy form 3rd party, much like you currently do for your natural gas. You can lock in fixed prices for your electricity.
• Brent trading around $105. Crude trading around $101.
• EIA revised its 2026 domestic production upward to 13.5MMB/D.
• EIA predicts 2026 NYMEX natgas will average $3.50.
• EIA predicts natgas production will average 121.8Bcf/D, up 1% from earlier estimates, due to rising oil to gas in the Permian.
• NYMEX gas prices are up a few cents w/warmer temps on deck.
• Natgas driving fundamentals are now leaning bullish.
• EPA reinforces commitment to support "reliable, affordable coal-fired electricity".
NYMEX
June '26 – Open = $2.86, High = $2.94, Low = $2.79, Current = $2.94
+$0.11 from 1 week ago
-$0.55 from 1 year ago
+$0.60 from 2 years ago
50-day avg = $2.85
20-day avg = $2.70
9-day avg = $2.79
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.10 (R2) = $3.25
PIVOT = $2.85
SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.78 (S2) = $2.70
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
12 months (June '26 Start) = $3.37
Summer '26 (June – Oct) = $3.04
Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $3.89
Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.16
Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.21
Calendar '27 = $3.49
Calendar '28 = $3.70
Calendar '29 = $3.69
Calendar '30 = $3.65
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year – thru May '26
2026 = $4.15
2025 = $3.45
2024 = $2.26
2023 = $2.73
2022 = $6.64
2021 = $3.84
2020 = $2.07
2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
2026 PG&E CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $2.309
2025 avg = $3.568.
2026 SoCal CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $3.195
2025 avg = $3.891.
2026 Transco Z5 South FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $6.45
2025 avg = $3.608.
LNG EXPORTS = 17.5Bcf, -1.8% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 7.0Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 7.0Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 107.6Bcf, +1.0% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 110.5Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 98.8Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Moderate
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Mild to neutral for the West & North while South, from AZ to FL will see increasing CDDs through the weekend.
6-10 Day = Bearish
8-14 Day = Even
3-4 Week = Even
May – July = Bullish
June – Aug = Even
July – Sep = Bearish
NE/New England = HDDs fade, CDDs increase along with temps. 60s-40s.
Mid-Atlantic = Increasing CDDs and temps. 70s-50s.
SE/Gulf = CDDs increasing through the weekend. 80s-50s.
Texas/S. Plains = Bullish CDDs, storm watch for the Plains. 90s-70s.
West/SW = Cooler temps to the west, hot to the east. 90s-50s.
Pac NW/N. Plains = A little rain with mild temps and HDDs. 60s-30s.
Mid-Con = Building CDDs with increasing rain for the region. 70s-50s.
RIG COUNT as of 5-8-26
Total = 548, +1 w/w.
Oil @ 410 rigs, +2 w/w.
Natural Gas @ 129 rigs, -1 w/w.
Miscellaneous @ 9 rigs, no change w/w.
Rig count 1 year ago = 578.
STORAGE – 5-14-26
Estimate = +86Bcf. Actual = +85Bcf
Last year = +110Bcf. 5-yr avg = +84Bcf.
Storage levels are +51Bcf compared to this time last year.
Storage levels are +140Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 2,150Bcf.
At 2,290Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 3.9Tcf. 3-31-27 @ 1.7Tcf to 2.0Tcf
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
NatGas = 43%
Nuclear = 18%
Coal = 14%
Hydro = 5%
Wind = 12%
Solar = 9% (peaks higher intraday)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1412. Resi = $0.1805.
REAL TIME POWER (MW) PRICING RANGE on 5-15-26
CAISO = -$151 - $64
ERCOT = -$6 - $11
SPP = -$27 - $18
MISO = -$42 - $22
PJM = -$15 - $29
NYISO = $33 - $38
CRUDE
2026 = $89.90
2027 = $75.88
2028 = $71.72
2029 = $69.39
THE BOTTOM LINE
NYMEX natgas prices are seeing a wide spread between forward prices and physical cash prices. We're currently oversupplied in many regions, but traders see these markets tightening, so that explains the great spread. We are in the lowest-demand part of the year. Don't sleep on it too long.
FP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions, 310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie