THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 5-13-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Brent and crude are relatively flat today even with recent forecasts of a global drawdown of 8.5MM B/D for Q2.
- NYMEX gas prices are gaining back yesterday's losses, trading near and at a multi-week high.
- Tomorrow's storage expected injection keeps growing.
- Production is down nearly 1Bcf/d due to "strategic producer curtailments" – producers don't want prices falling any further.
- 2026 Production is expected to average 119Bcf/D before jumping to 124.5Bcf/D in 2027.
- Demand falls below averages but will be short lived if weather forecasts stay on track.
- EIA forecast NYMEX prices will average $2.83 for Q2 before jumping to a full year average
- No emergency concerns being reported from the major grids.
NYMEX
June '26 – Open = $2.83, High = $2.92, Low = $2.81, Current = $2.90
- +$0.18 from 1 week ago
- -$0.59 from 1 year ago
- +$0.56 from 2 years ago
- 50-day avg = $2.85
- 20-day avg = $2.70
- 9-day avg = $2.79
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.20 (R2) = $3.25
PIVOT = $2.80
SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.80 (S2) = $2.75
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (June '26 Start) = $3.38
- Summer '26 (June – Oct) = $3.03
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $3.91
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.18
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.23
- Calendar '27 = $3.51
- Calendar '28 = $3.70
- Calendar '29 = $3.66
- Calendar '30 = $3.64
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year – thru May '26
- 2026 = $4.15
- 2025 = $3.45
- 2024 = $2.26
- 2023 = $2.73
- 2022 = $6.64
- 2021 = $3.84
- 2020 = $2.07
- 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $2.309
- 2025 avg = $3.568.
- 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $3.195
- 2025 avg = $3.891.
- 2026 Transco Z5 South FoM Index Avg (thru May '26) = $6.45
- 2025 avg = $3.608.
SUPPLY & DEMAND DATA
LNG EXPORTS = 17.5Bcf, +0.8% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 7.5Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 5.2Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 108.6Bcf, +1.8% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 110.6Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 96.7Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Moderate
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Bullish power today for SW/TX/S. Storms from Ohio to Vermont as well as for the SE coast.
- 6-10 Day = Bullish
- 8-14 Day = Bullish
- 3-4 Week = Even
Seasonal Forecasts:
- May – July = Bullish
- June – Aug = Even
- July – Sep = Bearish
Regional Weather:
- NE/New England = HDDs falling with across the region. 60s-40s.
- Mid-Atlantic = CDDs increasing, showers moving in. 70s-50s.
- SE/Gulf = CDDs increasing across the region. 80s-60s.
- Texas/S. Plains = Bullish CDDs continue. 80s-60s.
- West/SW = Bullish CAISO load as 100s hit the inland. 100s-50s.
- Pac NW/N. Plains = Rain across the region. 80s-40s.
- Mid-Con = Neutral demand with clouds coverage capping CDDs. 80s-40s.
RIG COUNT as of 5-8-26
- Total = 548, +1 w/w.
- Oil @ 410 rigs, +2 w/w.
- Natural Gas @ 129 rigs, -1 w/w.
- Miscellaneous @ 9 rigs, no change w/w.
- Rig count 1 year ago = 578.
STORAGE – 5-14-26
- Estimate = +86Bcf. Actual = TBD
- Last year = +110Bcf. 5-yr avg = +84Bcf.
- Storage levels are +75Bcf compared to this time last year.
- Storage levels are +139Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 2,066Bcf.
- At 2,205Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
- Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 3.9Tcf. 3-31-27 @ 1.7Tcf to 2.0Tcf
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
- NatGas = 42%
- Nuclear = 19%
- Coal = 13%
- Hydro = 6%
- Wind = 12%
- Solar = 8% (peaks higher intraday)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1437. Resi = $0.1765.
REAL TIME POWER (MW) PRICING RANGE on 5-13-26
- CAISO = -$45 - $45
- ERCOT = $14 - $23
- SPP = $16 - $20
- MISO = -$52 - $120
- PJM = -$8 - $15
- NYISO = $35 - $38
CRUDE PRICING
- 2026 = $91.86
- 2027 = $77.55
- 2028 = $72.83
- 2029 = $70.29
THE BOTTOM LINE
The California Direct Access for 3rd Party Supply Lottery is coming up in the first week of June. If you are interested in entering the lottery to lock in your electricity rates, and you should want to do this as rates only go up in California, contact us directly and we will walk you through the application and submit on your behalf, just as we have done in past years.
FP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions
310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie