THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 4-7-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Crude and Brent are both up again this morning as the US begins bombing Kharg island, home to Iran's oil-critical stronghold.
- Markets are pricing in material loss.
- Brent sits around $110. Crude sits around $114.
- NYMEX natgas prices are up as much as $0.06 so far this morning from yesterday's low. Overall, same as yesterday.
- Production is falling slightly, limiting the bears.
- Cold fronts across the north also limiting bears today.
- Production is dipping right now but remains above the latest daily average estimates of 109.97Bcf/D.
- No pipeline or grid disruptions to speak of at this time.
- LNG exports will increase by May '26.
NYMEX
May '26 – Open = $2.80, High = $2.87, Low = $2.75, Current = $2.85
- -$0.10 from 1 week ago
- -$0.79 from 1 year ago
- +$0.96 from 2 years ago
- 50-day avg = $3.39
- 20-day avg = $3.00
- 9-day avg = $2.91
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.00 (R2) = $3.05 PIVOT = $2.82 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.75 (S2) = $2.50
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (May '26 Start) = $3.52
- Summer '26 (May – Oct) = $3.11
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.09
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.34
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.37
- Calendar '27 = $3.68
- Calendar '28 = $3.73
- Calendar '29 = $3.67
- Calendar '30 = $3.69
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
- 2026 = $4.54
- 2025 = $3.45
- 2024 = $2.26
- 2023 = $2.73
- 2022 = $6.64
- 2021 = $3.84
- 2020 = $2.07
- 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.580
- 2025 avg = $3.568
- 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $3.504
- 2025 avg = $3.891
- 2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.593
- 2025 avg = $3.103
KEY METRICS
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 20.4Bcf, +1.7% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 7.0Bcf.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 5.9Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 110.4Bcf, +2.8% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 121.8Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 114.5Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Cooler temps along the northern border limiting downward pressure on natgas prices.
- 6-10 Day = Bearish
- 8-14 Day = Bearish
- 3-4 Week = Bearish
- May – July = Bullish
- June – Aug = Even
- July – Sep = Even
Regional Weather
- NE/New England = HDDs still in effect next few days. 40s-10s.
- Mid-Atlantic = Still chilly but limited, if any, HDDs. 60s-30s.
- SE/Gulf = CDDs increasing over the next few days. 70s-50s.
- Texas/S. Plains = Shoulder season weather in full effect. 70s-50s.
- West/SW = Clear skies with some cooling demand to the east. 90s-50s.
- Pac NW/N. Plains = Falling temps but clear skies. 60s-30s.
- Midwest/Great Lakes = Below normal temps with some storms. 40s-20s.
RIG COUNT as of 4-2-26
- Total = 548, +5 w/w.
- Oil @ 411 rigs, +2 w/w.
- Natural Gas @ 130 rigs, +3 w/w.
- Miscellaneous @ 7 rigs, no change w/w.
- Rig count 1 year ago = 592.
STORAGE – 4-2-26
- Estimate = -+24Bcf. Actual = +36Bcf
- Last year = -37Bcf.
- 5-yr avg = -13Bcf.
- Storage levels are +96Bcf compared to this time last year.
- Storage levels are +54Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,811Bcf.
- At 1,865Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
- Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
- NatGas = 39%
- Nuclear = 19%
- Coal = 14%
- Hydro = 6%
- Wind = 12%
- Solar = 10% (peaks higher intraday)
POWER PRICING
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1364. Resi = $0.1745
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 10:0AM, EST, 4-7-26:
- CAISO = -$39 - $47
- ERCOT = -$27 - $0
- MISO = $15 - $20
- PJM = -$2 - $20
- NYISO = $26 - $29
- ISONE = $25 - $27
CRUDE = 2026 = $86.18, 2027 = $70.77, 2028 = $67.73, 2029 = $65.64
THE BOTTOM LINE
EIA predicts NYMEX gas will average $3.80 for 2026. Thanks to Feb '256 coming in at $7.46, the current average is $4.54. We're well below the estimated average and should see it fall further by the end of this week after the cold blast moves out of the northern regions. Be ready.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie