THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 4-6-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Crude and Brent are both trading flat so far on the day but remain elevated due to short term panic and geopolitical risk to supply.
- Brent sits around $108. Crude sits around $110.
- NYMEX natgas prices are up 1.5% from Friday's close but remain 9% below last months' average price.
- Back-end months are staying up more than front-end months as traders look at next winter demand and AI demand kicking in by Q4 of 2026.
- Rising storage levels, record production, and a drop in demand are outweighing LNG exports right now.
- LNG exports starting to average 20Bcf/D and more on some days.
- Basis is strengthening in many regions we care about.
- Power prices across the major ISOs are soft today.
NYMEX
May '26 – Open = $2.83, High = $2.86, Low = $2.76, Current = $2.85
-$0.03 from 1 week ago -$0.79 from 1 year ago +$0.96 from 2 years ago
50-day avg = $3.43 20-day avg = $3.02 9-day avg = $2.91
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.00 (R2) = $3.05 PIVOT = $2.82 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.75 (S2) = $2.50
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
12 months (May '26 Start) = $3.53 Summer '26 (May – Oct) = $3.11 Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.12 Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.34 Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.39 Calendar '27 = $3.69 Calendar '28 = $3.62 Calendar '29 = $3.56 Calendar '30 = $3.54
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
2026 = $4.54 2025 = $3.45 2024 = $2.26 2023 = $2.73 2022 = $6.64 2021 = $3.84 2020 = $2.07 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.580 2025 avg = $3.568.
2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $3.504 2025 avg = $3.891.
2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.593 2025 avg = $3.103.
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 20.0Bcf, +2.7% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.8Bcf.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 6.0Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 111.8Bcf, +4.7% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 122.1Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 114.2Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Bearish to Neutral weather right now with MW/NE still carrying slight HDDs.
6-10 Day = Bearish 8-14 Day = Bearish 3-4 Week = Bearish
May – July = Bullish June – Aug = Even July – Sep = Even
NE/New England = HDDs most of this week. 40s-10s. Mid-Atlantic = Chillier than last week. Limited HDDs. 60s-40s. SE/Gulf = Spring like with little to no demand. 70s-40s. Texas/S. Plains = Warm but not hot. Slight support for CDDs. 70s-40s. West/SW = Clear skies with some cooling demand to the east. 90s-50s. Pac NW/N. Plains = Picture perfect weather today. 70s-40s. Midwest/Great Lakes = The only region showing true gas demand. 50s-20s.
RIG COUNT as of 4-2-26
Total = 548, +5 w/w. Oil @ 411 rigs, +2 w/w. Natural Gas @ 130 rigs, +3 w/w. Miscellaneous @ 7 rigs, no change w/w. Rig count 1 year ago = 592.
STORAGE
4-2-26 Estimate = -+24Bcf. Actual = +36Bcf Last year = -37Bcf. 5-yr avg = -13Bcf. Storage levels are +96Bcf compared to this time last year. Storage levels are +54Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,811Bcf. At 1,865Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range. Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
NatGas = 40% Nuclear = 19% Coal = 16% Hydro = 6% Wind = 10% Solar = 9% (peaks higher intraday)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1364. Resi = $0.1745
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 10:0AM, EST, 4-6-26
CAISO = $20 - $30 ERCOT = $7 - $10 MISO = $3 - $10 PJM = $19 - $23 NYISO = $30 - $35 ISONE = $25 - $27
CRUDE = 2026 = $84.93, 2027 = $69.39, 2028 = $66.65, 2029 = $64.69
THE BOTTOM LINE
This week we could see prices fall a little further. Basis out West is tightening up after CDDs were well above average last week. Allow for that to correct downward b/c supply is stacked out west. If you want to gamble - maybe play Index for May and June before demand kicks in and traders get anxious.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions, 310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie