THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 4-29-26
April 29, 2026 by Sean Dookie
THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 4-29-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
• Crude and Brent are both taking off, up as much as 5% so far. • UAE's exit from OPEC creating great uncertainty and volatility. • The US is now the global "swing supplier" for LNG as SoH remains closed. Expect more than pre-war volume to leave US shores/fields. • NYMEX gas prices falling further as May '26 expires and tomorrow's storage report injection estimate grows. • Tomorrow's injection will have to hit +90Bcf to release further bears. +80Bcf is neutral, less than +75Bcf is bullish. • Production continues to fall short of the recent 2026 record highs. • LNG is also slowing down, dropping below 20Bcf/D recently. • US hydro expected to rebound in 2026, increasing by 5%, but still below the 10-yr avg due to continuing droughts, especially in CA. • TX/OK/LA/AR region power demand up nearly 10% in 2026. • No major outages on pipelines/grids being reported so far today.
NYMEX
June '26 – Open = $2.68, High = $2.68, Low = $2.61, Current = $2.65
-$0.21 from 1 week ago
-$0.91 from 1 year ago
+$0.73 from 2 years ago
50-day avg = $2.89
20-day avg = $2.69
9-day avg = $2.64
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $2.95 (R2) = $3.10
PIVOT = $2.60
SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.55 (S2) = $2.40
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
12 months (June '26 Start) = $3.52
Summer '26 (June – Oct) = $3.06
Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.04
Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.33
Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.34
Calendar '27 = $3.65 Calendar '28 = $3.77
Calendar '29 = $3.70 Calendar '30 = $3.70
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
2026 = $4.54 2025 = $3.45 2024 = $2.26 2023 = $2.73
2022 = $6.64 2021 = $3.84 2020 = $2.07 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.580
2025 avg = $3.568.
2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $3.504
2025 avg = $3.891.
2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.593
2025 avg = $3.103.
MARKET DATA
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 19.3Bcf, -3.9% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.5Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 4.5Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 110.0Bcf, +3.1% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 112.1Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 105.4Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Moderate
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Mainly bearish weather today except for TX/Gulf where bullish, steamy temps demand higher CDDs than normal.
6-10 Day = Bearish 8-14 Day = Bearish 3-4 Week = Bearish
May – July = Bullish June – Aug = Even July – Sep = Bearish
NE/New England = Light demand with rain moving in later. 60s-40s.
Mid-Atlantic = Moderate storms with bearish demand. 70s-50s.
SE/Gulf = Hot temps along the coast with storms. 80s-60s.
Texas/S. Plains = Storms move out, cooler north, hotter south. 80s-60s.
West/SW =Beautiful clear skies with heat in the SW. 80s-50s.
Pac NW/N. Plains = Mostly clear skies and warmer temps. Enjoy! 70s-20s.
Great Lakes = Sunny skies and cooler temps. 60s-30s.
RIG COUNT as of 4-24-26
Total = 544, +1 w/w.
Oil @ 407 rigs, -3 w/w.
Natural Gas @ 129 rigs, +4 w/w.
Miscellaneous @ 8 rigs, no change w/w.
Rig count 1 year ago = 587.
STORAGE
4-30-26 Estimate = +83Bcf. Actual = TBD
Last year = +107Bcf. 5-yr avg = +60Bcf.
Storage levels are +142Bcf compared to this time last year.
Storage levels are +137Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,926Bcf.
At 2,063Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
NatGas = 40% Nuclear = 20% Coal = 17% Hydro = 5%
Wind = 9% Solar = 9% (peaks higher intraday)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1450. Resi = $0.1805.
REAL TIME POWER (MW) PRICING RANGE on 4-29-26
CAISO = -$118 - $84 ERCOT = $38 - $40 MISO = -$126 - $223
PJM = $56 - $114 NYISO = $30 - $34 ISONE = $33 - $35
CRUDE
2026 = $88.85, 2027 = $74.88, 2028 = $69.77, 2029 = $65.73
THE BOTTOM LINE
June '26 is now prompt month. We could see prices fall a little further as Bid Week winds down. Tomorrow's storage injection should help choose market direction. We could see prices remain weak into next week. Don't wait too long. All mid to long term fundamentals point to higher prices coming.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions,
310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie