THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 4-24-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
• Crude sits @ $94, down 1%. Brent sits at $104, down 1%. • "Experts" at Axios war oil prices could surge to $200/B if the SoH closure persists. • NYMEX gas prices fall to the lowest prices since Oct '24. • Storage is 7% above normal for this time of year and more above normal injections are expected due to mild weather crushing HDDs. • On the bullish side, production fell to an 11-week low. • LNG is averaging 18.9Bcf/D in April, on track to set a new record. • Power prices are mostly neutral today but bullish in the long term. • Weather and storage are the main bears while LNG continues to be the major bull. • RE pushes gas demand further down and could continue to do so into next week.
NYMEX
May '26 – Open = $2.59, High = $2.59, Low = $2.52, Current = $2.53 -$0.10 from 1 week ago -$0.34 from 1 year ago +$0.90 from 2 years ago 50-day avg = $2.92 20-day avg = $2.75 9-day avg = $2.66
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $2.85 (R2) = $3.00 PIVOT = $2.55 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.45 (S2) = $2.30
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
12 months (May '26 Start) = $3.45 Summer '26 (May – Oct) = $3.05 Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.01 Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.26 Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.30 Calendar '27 = $3.62 Calendar '28 = $3.75 Calendar '29 = $3.69 Calendar '30 = $3.70
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
2026 = $4.54 2025 = $3.45 2024 = $2.26 2023 = $2.73 2022 = $6.64 2021 = $3.84 2020 = $2.07 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.580 2025 avg = $3.568.
2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $3.504 2025 avg = $3.891.
2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.593 2025 avg = $3.103.
SUPPLY & DEMAND DATA
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 19.8Bcf, +0.3% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 5.3Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 3.7Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 110.6Bcf, +3.7% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 112.3Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 106.9Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Wildfires continue in the Southeast. More tornadoes throughout the Plains & Mid-Con expected.
6-10 Day = Bearish 8-14 Day = Bearish 3-4 Week = Bearish
May – July = Bullish June – Aug = Even July – Sep = Bearish
NE/New England = Rain w/limited HDDs. 60s-40s. Mid-Atlantic = Storms to the north, CDDs increasing. 80s-60s. SE/Gulf = Mild CDDs, severe storm alerts moving in. 80s-60s. Texas/S. Plains = Storm alerts throughout. Elevated CDDs. 90s-60s. West/SW = Clear skies and pleasant temps. 70s-50s. Pac NW/N. Plains = Clear skies with bearish demand. 60s-20s. Great Lakes = Severe storm threats. Falling temps killing off CDDs. 70s-50s.
RIG COUNT as of 4-17-26:
Total = 543, -2 w/w. Oil @ 410 rigs, -1 w/w. Natural Gas @ 125 rigs, -2 w/w. Miscellaneous @ 8 rigs, +1 w/w. Rig count 1 year ago = 585.
STORAGE – 4-23-26
Estimate = +94Bcf. Actual = +103Bcf Last year = +88Bcf. 5-yr avg = +60Bcf. Storage levels are +142Bcf compared to this time last year. Storage levels are +137Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,926Bcf. At 2,063Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range. Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION:
NatGas = 36% Nuclear = 19% Coal = 16% Hydro = 5% Wind = 14% Solar = 10% (peaks higher intraday)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1364. Resi = $0.1745.
REAL TIME POWER MEGAWATT PRICING RANGE on 4-24-26:
CAISO = -$73 - $99 ERCOT = -$10 - $111 MISO = -$12 - $150 PJM = $25 - $27 NYISO = $30 - $34 ISONE = $28 - $31
CRUDE
2026 = $84.93, 2027 = $73.41, 2028 = $69.65, 2029 = $67.26
THE BOTTOM LINE
NYMEX prompt month broke $2.60 and we're now looking for it to break While NYMEX is falling, Basis in numerous regions that we care about are strengthening. We are in a good buy zone right now. Decide how much you want to gamble for on lower prices.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions, 310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie