THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 4-22-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Crude sits @ $90, up 1%. Brent sits at $99, up 1%.
- Oil prices are reacting to an indefinite extension of the US-Iran ceasefire, and especially the uncertainty with the access to the SoH.
- NYMEX natgas prices are up a few cents this morning.
- The market may be waiting for tomorrow's storage report.
- The US-Iran war looks like it's still carrying a war fear premium on our domestic supply.
- Tomorrow's storage injection is expected to be over 90Bcf.
- LNG exports stay above 20Bcf/d for the 3rd straight day.
- Power prices take a big jump up in NYISO and ISONE.
- Pockets of CAISO also seeing higher power prices with limited solar due to the heavy rain and cloud coverage.
NYMEX
May '26 – Open = $2.70, High = $2.75, Low = $2.67, Current = $2.74
- +$0.15 from 1 week ago
- -$0.13 from 1 year ago
- +$1.12 from 2 years ago
50-day avg = $2.94 20-day avg = $2.78 9-day avg = $2.65
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $2.85 (R2) = $3.00 PIVOT = $2.60 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.55 (S2) = $2.35
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (May '26 Start) = $3.42
- Summer '26 (May – Oct) = $3.03
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $3.94
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.26
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.30
- Calendar '27 = $3.58
- Calendar '28 = $3.68
- Calendar '29 = $3.64
- Calendar '30 = $3.65
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
- 2026 = $4.54
- 2025 = $3.45
- 2024 = $2.26
- 2023 = $2.73
- 2022 = $6.64
- 2021 = $3.84
- 2020 = $2.07
- 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.580
- 2025 avg = $3.568
- 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $3.504
- 2025 avg = $3.891
- 2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.593
- 2025 avg = $3.103
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 20.0Bcf, +1.5% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 5.5Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 4.0Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 110.3Bcf, +2.3% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 112.5Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 105.9Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Heavy storms for TX/Gulf/Se/SW regions.
6-10 Day = Bearish 8-14 Day = Bearish 3-4 Week = Bearish
May – July = Bullish June – Aug = Even July – Sep = Bearish
NE/New England = Rain and cooler temps for today. 50s-40s. Mid-Atlantic = Rain to the north, sunny to the south. 70s-50s. SE/Gulf = Modest CDDs with some rain from the west. 80s-50s. Texas/S. Plains = Warmer temps and storms continue. 80s-60s. West/SW = Rain continues, cooler than normal for many areas. 80s-40s. Pac NW/N. Plains = Rain and below normal temps. 50s-40s. Great Lakes = Storms moving to the east. A little muggy in parts. 80s-50s.
RIG COUNT as of 4-17-26
- Total = 543, -2 w/w.
- Oil @ 410 rigs, -1 w/w.
- Natural Gas @ 125 rigs, -2 w/w.
- Miscellaneous @ 8 rigs, +1 w/w.
- Rig count 1 year ago = 585.
STORAGE – 4-23-26 Estimate = +94Bcf. Actual = TBD
- Last year = +26Bcf. 5-yr avg = +19Bcf.
- Storage levels are 126Bcf compared to this time last year.
- Storage levels are +108Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,862Bcf.
- At 1,970Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
- Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
- NatGas = 42%
- Nuclear = 20%
- Coal = 17%
- Hydro = 6%
- Wind = 10%
- Solar = 5% (peaks higher intraday)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1364 (+6.4% y/y). Resi = $0.1745 (+9% y/y)
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE on 4-22-26
- CAISO = -$2 - $25
- ERCOT = -$38 - $34
- MISO = -$20 - $15
- PJM = -$78 - $212
- NYISO = $39 - $44
- ISONE = $66 - $184
CRUDE = 2026 = $85.55, 2027 = $72.41, 2028 = $68.54, 2029 = $66.37
THE BOTTOM LINE
We're looking at tomorrow's storage report and next week's weather for further price collapse. We seem to be unable to break the $2.60 NYMEX price point for further bears. Current market prices show good buys for both NYMEX and Basis. If tomorrow's injection comes in strong without downward movement taking place, we could have our answer to the bottom of the market. There are firm bulls building that should arrive midsummer.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions, 310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie