THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 4-20-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Crude and Brent prices are up again this morning as tensions in the ME increase along with SoH said to be closed again.
- Both are up approximately 4%, continuing volatile movement.
- EIA expects Brent to peak at $115 before easing to $88 by Q4 '26.
- Middle East region shut-ins in April expected to rise to 9.1MB/D.
- NYMEX natgas prices softening after weekend upward movement.
- Current weather should drop gas demand to further bearish levels.
- Prices should come off as temps for the eastern half come off.
- LNG EXPORTS at near capacity as global premiums continue.
- ERCOT says TX demand could hit 98,000MW – significantly more than the record set in the summer of 2023 at 85,508MW.
- Mild weather, strong hydropower, and RE oversupply continue to push power prices in ERCOT & CAISO to negative levels at times.
NYMEX
May '26 – Open = $2.68, High = $2.74, Low = $2.67, Current = $2.68 +$0.04 from 1 week ago -$0.48 from 1 year ago +$0.90 from 2 years ago 50-day avg = $2.97 20-day avg = $2.81 9-day avg = $2.67
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $2.85 (R2) = $3.00 PIVOT = $2.60 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.55 (S2) = $2.35
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
12 months (May '26 Start) = $3.41 Summer '26 (May – Oct) = $3.03 Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $3.94 Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.26 Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.30 Calendar '27 = $3.58 Calendar '28 = $3.68 Calendar '29 = $3.64 Calendar '30 = $3.65
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
2026 = $4.54 2025 = $3.45 2024 = $2.26 2023 = $2.73 2022 = $6.64 2021 = $3.84 2020 = $2.07 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.580 2025 avg = $3.568. 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $3.504 2025 avg = $3.891. 2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.593 2025 avg = $3.103.
MARKET DATA
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 19.6Bcf, -1.3% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.9Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 4.8Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 111.1Bcf, +4.0% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 112.5Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 100.4Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
HDDs return to the upper Mid-Con & NE. 6-10 Day = Bearish 8-14 Day = Bearish 3-4 Week = Bearish
May – July = Bullish June – Aug = Even July – Sep = Bearish
NE/New England = A slight return to HDDs. Clear skies. 50s-20s. Mid-Atlantic = Chamber of Commerce weather – nod to M.M. 70s-30s. SE/Gulf = Chamber of Commerce weather in this region as well. 70s-50s. Texas/S. Plains = Cooler temps with some rain. 60s-50s. West/SW = Warmer in the southland with rain along the coast. 90s-50s. Pac NW/N. Plains = Warmer temps with some light rain. 70s-40s. Great Lakes = Clear skies and cooler. Cold to the north. 60s-40s.
RIG COUNT as of 4-17-26:
Total = 543, -2 w/w. Oil @ 410 rigs, -1 w/w. Natural Gas @ 125 rigs, -2 w/w. Miscellaneous @ 8 rigs, +1 w/w. Rig count 1 year ago = 585.
STORAGE – 4-16-26
Estimate = +55Bcf. Actual = +59Bcf Last year = +26Bcf. 5-yr avg = +19Bcf. Storage levels are 126Bcf compared to this time last year. Storage levels are +108Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,862Bcf. At 1,970Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range. Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION:
NatGas = 34% Nuclear = 18% Coal = 17% Hydro = 7% Wind = 12% Solar = 12% (peaks higher intraday)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1364 (+6.4% y/y). Resi = $0.1745 (+9% y/y)
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 10:0AM, EST, 4-20-26:
CAISO = -$91 - $74 ERCOT = $50 - $52 MISO = -$26- $83 PJM = $27 - $28 NYISO = $39 - $41 ISONE = $34 - $41
CRUDE = 2026 = $84.29, 2027 = $71.65, 2028 = $67.98, 2029 = $65.88
THE BOTTOM LINE
We could see NYMEX prices fall further this week as a cool front moves across the US, putting both CDDs and HDDs at a minimum. Basis prices continue to be the cheapest in LNG will only increase support for higher domestic prices. Summer weather is coming. Maintenance season is coming.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions, 310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie