THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 4-2-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Crude and Brent are both up today as peace talks stall with Iran.
- Brent up as much as 8%. Crude up as much as 13%.
- NYMEX natgas prices falling further today, showing a complete disconnection from oil and LNG exports pricing.
- Storage, production, and weather bringing demand destruction.
- Shoulder Season is cranking up.
- Basis prices increase in CA for no good reason while El Paso falls.
- Global LNG supply, lack thereof, will keep LNG exports at max capacity with more coming online.
- Power prices remain moderate w/discounts in CAISO and ERCOT.
NYMEX
May '26 – Open = $2.81, High = $2.88, Low = $2.78, Current = $2.78
- -$0.13 from 1 week ago
- -$0.81 from 1 year ago
- +$0.94 from 2 years ago
- 50-day avg = $3.47
- 20-day avg = $3.03
- 9-day avg = $2.95
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.00 (R2) = $3.05 PIVOT = $2.75 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.68 (S2) = $2.50
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (May '26 Start) = $3.50
- Summer '26 (May – Oct) = $3.08
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.09
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.33
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.37
- Calendar '27 = $3.68 Calendar '28 = $3.59
- Calendar '29 = $3.53 Calendar '30 = $3.51
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
- 2026 = $5.03
- 2025 = $3.45
- 2024 = $2.26
- 2023 = $2.73
- 2022 = $6.64
- 2021 = $3.84
- 2020 = $2.07
- 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $2.857
- 2025 avg = $3.568.
- 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.935
- 2025 avg = $3.891.
- 2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.051
- 2025 avg = $3.103.
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 19.7Bcf, -0.9% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 7.2Bcf.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 6.5Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 111.3Bcf, +4.7% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 123.3Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 113.8Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Strong storm corridor from the Miss Valley through the Mid-Con/Great Lakes
- 10 Day = Bearish
- 8-14 Day = Bearish
- 3-4 Week = Bearish
- May – July = Bullish
- June – Aug = Even
- July – Sep = Even
NE/New England = HDDs increasing as cold, rainy weather roils in. 40s-30s. Mid-Atlantic = Warm with clear skies and CDDs building. 80s-60s. SE/Gulf = Summer like weather with moderate CDDs. 80s-60s. Texas/S. Plains = Warm with increasing humidity. 80s-60s. West/SW = Very pleasant with limited heat even in the desert. 80s-40s. Pac NW/N. Plains = Cold w/freezing rain/heavy snow in the Plains. 50s-20s. Midwest/Great Lakes = Massive storms persist. 70s-60s.
RIG COUNT as of 3-27-26:
- Total = 543, -9 w/w.
- Oil @ 409 rigs, -5 w/w.
- Natural Gas @ 127 rigs, -4 w/w.
- Miscellaneous @ 7 rigs, no change w/w.
- Rig count 1 year ago = 592.
STORAGE – 4-2-26 Estimate = -+24Bcf. Actual = +36Bcf
- Last year = -37Bcf. 5-yr avg = -13Bcf.
- Storage levels are +96Bcf compared to this time last year.
- Storage levels are +54Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,811Bcf.
- At 1,865Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
- Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION:
- NatGas = 39%
- Nuclear = 18%
- Coal = 15%
- Hydro = 7%
- Wind = 11%
- Solar = 10% (peaks higher intraday)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1364. Resi = $0.1745
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 10:0AM, EST, 4-2-26:
- CAISO = -$13 - $116
- ERCOT = -$24 - $126
- MISO = $24 - $58
- PJM = $43 - $48
- NYISO = -$1 - $37
- ISONE = $36 - $38
CRUDE
- 2026 = $85.20
- 2027 = $7090
- 2028 = $66.95
- 2029 = $64.90
THE BOTTOM LINE
This week's song remains the same - We could see the best buying opportunities for NYMEX the further we go into April but before May (summer fear kicks off). The war premium appears to be gone from domestic pricing for now. Take advantage of that over the next few weeks. Supply in most regions is saturated. That won't last with summer demand.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions, 310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie