THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 4-17-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Crude and Brent prices are plummeting as optimism grows regarding a potential end to the US-Iran war.
- Both down around 10% on Iran saying SoH has been reopened.
- Rystad says energy repair from the Iran war could hit $58BB and take 5 to 10 years to rebuild.
- NYMEX natgas prices are starting out down with any remaining war fear premium sure to fall off now.
- EIA's range for 2026 NYMEX remains $3.50 to $4.31.
- Current weather charts are lining up for very bearish conditions in the coming weeks.
- LNG terminals preparing for new terminal/trains to open.
- Hydro levels are 10% above the 10-yr avg in CA.
- San Diego desalination project is now taking proposals from NV & AZ to sell them water.
NYMEX
May '26 – Open = $2.66, High = $2.70, Low = $2.62, Current = $2.63
- -$0.03 from 1 week ago
- -$0.63 from 1 year ago
- +$0.92 from 2 years ago
- 50-day avg = $2.99
- 20-day avg = $2.83
- 9-day avg = $2.68
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $2.90 (R2) = $3.00 PIVOT = $2.55 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.45 (S2) = $2.35
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (May '26 Start) = $3.37
- Summer '26 (May – Oct) = $2.99
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $3.92
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.21
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.09
- Calendar '27 = $3.54
- Calendar '28 = $3.64
- Calendar '29 = $3.61
- Calendar '30 = $3.62
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
- 2026 = $4.54
- 2025 = $3.45
- 2024 = $2.26
- 2023 = $2.73
- 2022 = $6.64
- 2021 = $3.84
- 2020 = $2.07
- 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.580
- 2025 avg = $3.568
- 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $3.504
- 2025 avg = $3.891
- 2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.593
- 2025 avg = $3.103
MARKET DATA
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 19.9Bcf, -0.1% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.6Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 4.3Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 110.7Bcf, +3.3% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 112.3Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 100.6Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Storms from Dallas to Mackinac with cooling temps from Seattle to Bangor.
- 6-10 Day = Bearish
- 8-14 Day = Bearish
- 3-4 Week = Bearish
- May – July = Bullish
- June – Aug = Even
- July – Sep = Even
Regional Weather
- NE/New England = Last day of elevated temps, cooling tomorrow. 60s-40s.
- Mid-Atlantic = Modest CDDs and clear skies. 90s-60s.
- SE/Gulf = Record setting heat for some spots. Moderate CDDs. 90s-60s.
- Texas/S. Plains = Heat fading out by day's end. 90s-50s.
- West/SW = Cool and pleasant throughout. 80s-50s.
- Pac NW/N. Plains = Low demand HDDs with clear skies. 50s-20s.
- Great Lakes = Severe weather alerts across the region. 80s-50s.
RIG COUNT as of 4-10-26
- Total = 545, -3 w/w
- Oil @ 411 rigs, no change w/w
- Natural Gas @ 127 rigs, -3 w/w
- Miscellaneous @ 7 rigs, no change w/w
- Rig count 1 year ago = 583
STORAGE – 4-16-26
- Estimate = +55Bcf
- Actual = +59Bcf
- Last year = +26Bcf
- 5-yr avg = +19Bcf
- Storage levels are 126Bcf compared to this time last year
- Storage levels are +108Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,862Bcf
- At 1,970Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range
- Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
- NatGas = 36%
- Nuclear = 20%
- Coal = 17%
- Hydro = 6%
- Wind = 14%
- Solar = 7% (peaks higher intraday)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1364, Resi = $0.1745
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 10:0AM, EST, 4-17-26
- CAISO = -$68 - $10
- ERCOT = -$1 - $25
- MISO = -$11- $21
- PJM = $14 - $16
- NYISO = $24 - $33
- ISONE = $33 - $34
CRUDE
- 2026 = $82.29
- 2027 = $71.15
- 2028 = $69.98
- 2029 = $67.21
THE BOTTOM LINE
We're looking at next week possibly being the week to lock up prices if you haven't done so already. Bears are running rampant but won't run forever. Both NYMEX and Basis are down. That does not happen often. Take advantage of it. Bulls show up without much warning.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions
310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com
X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie