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THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 4-16-26
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THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 4-16-26

April 16, 2026 by Sean Dookie

LNG exportsNYMEXNatural Gasbasis pricingcrude oilenergy marketspower generationstorage reportweather forecast

THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 4-16-26

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

  • Crude and Brent prices are up slightly as ceasefire hopes pause.
  • Oil front months remain elevated before collapsing by end of 2026.
  • NYMEX natgas prices are struggling to find direction before the EIA Storage Report.
  • Current prices are down 14% over the past month.
  • Ample supply & above normal storage injections bring more bears.
  • Production continues to impress but more is needed to stabilize summer spikes.
  • LNG and summer demand spikes will limit downward price movement, as will Maintenance Season.
  • Many "experts" believe the NYMEX floor is $2.60 – we're there.
  • Storage-wise, anything over +45Bcf is bearish.
  • PJM Eastern Interconnect showing early signs of early strain.

NYMEX

May '26 – Open = $2.61, High = $2.64, Low = $2.58, Current = $2.62

  • -$0.11 from 1 week ago
  • -$0.65 from 1 year ago
  • +$0.91 from 2 years ago
  • 50-day avg = $3.00
  • 20-day avg = $2.84
  • 9-day avg = $2.70

RESISTANCE = (R1) = $2.90 (R2) = $3.00 PIVOT = $2.55 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.45 (S2) = $2.35

NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS

  • 12 months (May '26 Start) = $3.35
  • Summer '26 (May – Oct) = $2.98
  • Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $3.89
  • Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.17
  • Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.24
  • Calendar '27 = $3.50
  • Calendar '28 = $3.64
  • Calendar '29 = $3.61
  • Calendar '30 = $3.62

NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year

  • 2026 = $4.54
  • 2025 = $3.45
  • 2024 = $2.26
  • 2023 = $2.73
  • 2022 = $6.64
  • 2021 = $3.84
  • 2020 = $2.07
  • 2019 = $2.62

BASIS

We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.

  • 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.580
  • 2025 avg = $3.568
  • 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $3.504
  • 2025 avg = $3.891
  • 2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.593
  • 2025 avg = $3.103

LNG EXPORTS

Est. = 19.8Bcf, -1.37% w/w.

MEXICO EXPORTS

= 6.7Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG.

CANADIAN IMPORTS

= 5.0Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.

DRY PRODUCTION

– Today's Est. = 109.6Bcf, +2.0% y/y.

SUPPLY

– Today's Est. = 111.1Bcf.

DEMAND

– Today's Est.= 99.9Bcf.

7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST

= Low

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS

Extreme heat bringing severe storms with it for the Northeast. Heavy rain for the Mid-Con.

  • 6-10 Day = Bearish
  • 8-14 Day = Bearish
  • 3-4 Week = Bearish
  • May – July = Bullish
  • June – Aug = Even
  • July – Sep = Even

Regional Weather:

  • NE/New England = Increasing CDDs with storms across the region. 80s-50s.
  • Mid-Atlantic = Continued CDDs with storms creeping in. 90s-60s.
  • SE/Gulf = Continued CDDs with mostly clear skies. 80s-60s.
  • Texas/S. Plains = Continued CDDs with clear skies. 90s-60s.
  • West/SW = Clear skies with some heat to the south. 80s-40s.
  • Pac NW/N. Plains = Colder than normal clearing skies. 50s-20s.
  • Great Lakes = Cooler with more severe storm warnings. 70s-50s.

RIG COUNT as of 4-10-26:

  • Total = 545, -3 w/w.
  • Oil @ 411 rigs, no change w/w
  • Natural Gas @ 127 rigs, -3 w/w.
  • Miscellaneous @ 7 rigs, no change w/w.
  • Rig count 1 year ago = 583.

STORAGE – 4-16-26

  • Estimate = +55Bcf. Actual = +59Bcf
  • Last year = +26Bcf. 5-yr avg = +19Bcf.
  • Storage levels are 126Bcf compared to this time last year.
  • Storage levels are +108Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,862Bcf.
  • At 1,970Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
  • Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf.

NATIONAL POWER GENERATION:

  • NatGas = 41%
  • Nuclear = 20%
  • Coal = 15%
  • Hydro = 5%
  • Wind = 12%
  • Solar = 7% (peaks higher intraday)

kWh PRICE AVERAGE

  • C&I = $0.1364
  • Resi = $0.1745

REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 10:0AM, EST, 4-16-26:

  • CAISO = -$129 - $34
  • ERCOT = -$3 - $41
  • MISO = $3 - $16
  • PJM = $13 - $16
  • NYISO = $22 - $25
  • ISONE = $32 - $34

CRUDE

  • 2026 = $88.29
  • 2027 = $72.28
  • 2028 = $69.91
  • 2029 = $67.11

THE BOTTOM LINE

We're sticking with yesterday's take - Both NYMEX and Basis prices (at most delivery points) continue to inch down penny by penny. We're not trying to capture the bottom of the market – we're looking for a price within budget, protecting us from index and spot market spikes.

RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.

Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie

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