THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 4-15-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Crude and Brent are flat so far today, reacting to a combination of US naval blockade in the SoH and renewed hope of peace talks.
- NYMEX natgas prices are down a few cents this morning due to being oversupplied with below normal demand even with the heat.
- There's a near $2.00 difference between May '26 and Jan '27 with Jan '27 nearing that $4.60 mark we talked about in the Nightcap.
- This tells us traders believe there will be significant tightening of supply and increasing demand next winter. Pay attention to that.
- If you're buying a FP right now, chances are it's well below that Jan '27 price – if you over nominate the winter, chances are you'll sellback at a profit.
- Record heat for the eastern third of the US increases CDDs.
- Hot spots creating power price hot spots.
NYMEX
May '26 – Open = $2.59, High = $2.62, Low = $2.57, Current = $2.59
- -$0.26 from 1 week ago
- -$0.68 from 1 year ago
- +$0.88 from 2 years ago
- 50-day avg = $3.01
- 20-day avg = $2.87
- 9-day avg = $2.72
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $2.90 (R2) = $3.00
PIVOT = $2.55
SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.45 (S2) = $2.35
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (May '26 Start) = $3.35
- Summer '26 (May – Oct) = $2.97
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $3.90
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.15
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.23
- Calendar '27 = $3.50
- Calendar '28 = $3.64
- Calendar '29 = $3.61
- Calendar '30 = $3.62
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
- 2026 = $4.54
- 2025 = $3.45
- 2024 = $2.26
- 2023 = $2.73
- 2022 = $6.64
- 2021 = $3.84
- 2020 = $2.07
- 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.580
- 2025 avg = $3.568.
- 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $3.504
- 2025 avg = $3.891.
- 2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.593
- 2025 avg = $3.103.
MARKET DATA
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 19.7Bcf, +3.7% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 7.2Bcf. Increasing July '26 for Costa Azul LNG.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 6.0Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 110.8Bcf, +2.2% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 113.8Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 100.5Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Severe weather alerts with tornado warnings in effect from Texas to the Upper Peninsula Michigan.
- 6-10 Day = Bearish
- 8-14 Day = Bearish
- 3-4 Week = Bearish
- May – July = Bullish
- June – Aug = Even
- July – Sep = Even
Regional Weather
- NE/New England = Increasing CDDs with storms across the region. 70s-50s.
- Mid-Atlantic = Continued CDDs with storms creeping in. 90s-60s.
- SE/Gulf = Continued CDDs with mostly clear skies. 80s-60s.
- Texas/S. Plains = Continued CDDs with storms moving out. 80s-60s.
- West/SW = Cool, breezy, with some rain to the north. 70s-40s.
- Pac NW/N. Plains = Colder than normal with more rain. 60s-20s.
- Great Lakes = Continued CDDs, severe storms throughout. 80s-40s.
RIG COUNT as of 4-10-26
- Total = 545, -3 w/w.
- Oil @ 411 rigs, no change w/w
- Natural Gas @ 127 rigs, -3 w/w.
- Miscellaneous @ 7 rigs, no change w/w.
- Rig count 1 year ago = 583.
STORAGE – 4-16-26
- Estimate = +39Bcf to +69Bcf. Actual = TBD
- Last year = +26Bcf. 5-yr avg = +19Bcf.
- Storage levels are 89Bcf compared to this time last year.
- Storage levels are +87Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,824Bcf.
- At 1,911Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
- Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
- NatGas = 40%
- Nuclear = 19%
- Coal = 17%
- Hydro = 6%
- Wind = 10%
- Solar = 8% (peaks higher intraday)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1364. Resi = $0.1745
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 10:0AM, EST, 4-15-26
- CAISO = -$94 - $34
- ERCOT = -$1 - $25
- MISO = $2 - $13
- PJM = $12 - $16
- NYISO = $12 - $25
- ISONE = $32 - $34
CRUDE
- 2026 = $87.67
- 2027 = $71.93
- 2028 = $68.76
- 2029 = $66.31
THE BOTTOM LINE
Both NYMEX and Basis prices (at most delivery points) continue to inch down penny by penny. We're not trying to capture the bottom of the market – you get burned chasing the bottom of the market by waiting too long only to pay a higher price that you could have avoided. Set your budget, pick your price, put it to bed, enjoy the summer.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions
310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie