THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 4-10-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
• Crude and Brent are both flat so far this morning after a 15% plunge on earlier this week. Markets remain volatile as the SoH remains effectively closed. • Brent staying around $97. Crude down around $95. • NYMEX natgas prompt month prices are flat this morning after breaking the pivot point overnight. • Weak demand and rising supply limiting any upward movement. • No major grid or pipeline outages to report. • Maintenance season for pipelines starts soon. • LNG continues to export at near capacity. • Many believe LNG is the only thing preventing NYMEX natgas prices seeing sub-$2 range. • LNG exports increasing can also push domestic prices up, and it will as soon as more terminals open and exports increase.
NYMEX
May '26 – Open = $2.67, High = $2.68, Low = $2.62, Current = $2.66 -$0.12 from 1 week ago -$0.84 from 1 year ago +$0.83 from 2 years ago 50-day avg = $3.17 20-day avg = $2.95 9-day avg = $2.83
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.00 (R2) = $3.05 PIVOT = $2.60 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.50 (S2) = $2.35
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
12 months (May '26 Start) = $3.43 Summer '26 (May – Oct) = $3.02 Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.01 Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.28 Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.31 Calendar '27 = $3.62 Calendar '28 = $3.76 Calendar '29 = $3.59 Calendar '30 = $3.61
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
2026 = $4.54 2025 = $3.45 2024 = $2.26 2023 = $2.73 2022 = $6.64 2021 = $3.84 2020 = $2.07 2019 = $2.62
BASIS – We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.580 2025 avg = $3.568. 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $3.504 2025 avg = $3.891. 2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through April '26) = $2.593 2025 avg = $3.103.
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 20.0Bcf, +0.5% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 7.0Bcf.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 6.0Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 110.9Bcf, +4.3% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 119.1Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 93.6Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Weather forecasts shifted warmer overnight, bringing in more bears.
6-10 Day = Bearish 8-14 Day = Bearish 3-4 Week = Bearish
May – July = Bullish June – Aug = Even July – Sep = Even
NE/New England = Rain moves to the north with fading HDDs. 60s-30s. Mid-Atlantic = Broadly mild with no HDDs. 70s-50s. SE/Gulf = Azaleas are in full bloom with clear skies. 80s-50s. Texas/S. Plains = Rain to the east. 80s-60s. West/SW = Warm, humid, and some rain. 80s-50s. Pac NW/N. Plains = Pretty clear skies and pleasant. 60s-40s. Midwest/Great Lakes = Cooler with rain throughout the region. 60s-30s.
RIG COUNT as of 4-2-26:
Total = 548, +5 w/w. Oil @ 411 rigs, +2 w/w. Natural Gas @ 130 rigs, +3 w/w. Miscellaneous @ 7 rigs, no change w/w. Rig count 1 year ago = 592.
STORAGE – 4-9-26 Estimate = +43Bcf. Actual = +50Bcf
Last year = +57Bcf. 5-yr avg = +21Bcf. Storage levels are 89Bcf compared to this time last year. Storage levels are +87Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,824Bcf. At 1,911Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range. Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION:
NatGas = 40% Nuclear = 18% Coal = 16% Hydro = 6% Wind = 12% Solar = 8% (peaks higher intraday)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1364. Resi = $0.1745
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 10:0AM, EST, 4-10-26:
CAISO = -$150 - $82 ERCOT = -$40 - $84 MISO = $14 - $30 PJM = $22 - $26 NYISO = $27 - $29 ISONE = $26 - $28
CRUDE = 2026 = $87.10, 2027 = $71.51, 2028 = $68.40, 2029 = $60.07
THE BOTTOM LINE
Weather is in our favor. Supply is rising. Production remains strong. LNG exports are capped out. Basis remains weak in most markets. Take advantage of the next 2 weeks before fears and maintenance season kicks in.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions, 310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie