THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 3-9-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Oil prices push past $100/barrel as Hormuz effectively closes.
- US & G7 in talks about emergency oil stock release as Hormuz provides 20% of world supply.
- NYMEX prices increased approximately 20% over the weekend.
- NYMEX starts today up but down from weekend highs.
- Expect prices to remain elevated due the inflated and unfounded war/fear premium.
- Some economists suggest a prolonged war could double prices domestically, as seen in 2022 with the Ukraine invasion.
- Prices corrected quickly. Allow for the same to happen.
- We may see 1 or 2 months of elevated prices.
- Basis is falling in many regions that we care about.
- Power prices slide down even with heavy natgas reliance.
NYMEX
Apr '26 – Open = $3.30, High = $3.49, Low = $3.23, Current = $3.23
+$0.13 from 1 week ago
-$1.29 from 1 year ago
+$1.58 from 2 years ago
50-day avg = $3.70
20-day avg = $3.05
9-day avg = $2.96
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.45 (R2) = $3.70
PIVOT = $3.30
SUPPORT = (S1) = $3.25 (S2) = $3.20
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
12 months (April '26 Start) = $3.93
Summer '26 (April – Oct) = $3.48
Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.55
Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.44
Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.42
Calendar '27 = $3.85
Calendar '28 = $4.66
Calendar '29 = $3.63
Calendar '30 = $3.64
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
2026 = $5.03
2025 = $3.45
2024 = $2.26
2023 = $2.73
2022 = $6.64
2021 = $3.84
2020 = $2.07
2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $2.857
2025 avg = $3.568.
2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.935
2025 avg = $3.891.
2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.051
2025 avg = $3.103.
TRADE DATA
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 19.5Bcf, -0.7% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.0Bcf.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 4.5Bcf.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 113.6Bcf, +6.4% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 118.1Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 113.5Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Storms in the Pac NW, Northern Border, and Gulf.
10 Day = Even
8-14 Day = Even
3-4 Week = Even
March – May = Bullish
April – June = Bullish
May – June = Bullish
Regional Forecasts
NE/New England = Spring weather before cooler temps return. 30s-60s.
SE/Gulf = Warm, humid, and scattered showers. 60s-80s.
TX/S. Plains = Warm w/severe storms possible. 50s-80s.
Mid-Con = Mild temps with storms moving in. 40s-70s.
Rockies/N. Plains = Cooler and windy with some rain. 30s-70s.
Pac NW/West = Rain to the north, record heat to the south. 30s-80s.
RIG COUNT
as of 3-6-26:
Total = 551, +1 w/w.
Oil @ 411 rigs, +4 w/w.
Natural Gas @ 132 rigs, -2 w/w.
Miscellaneous @ 8 rigs, -1 w/w.
Rig count 1 year ago = 592.
STORAGE
3-5-26 Estimate = -125Bcf. Actual = -132Bcf
Last year = -106Bcf. 5-yr avg = -96Bcf.
+115Bcf compared to this time last year.
-43Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,929Bcf.
At 1,886Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
Storage forecasted avg for 3-31-26 = 1.90Tcf.
Storage forecasted avg for 10-31-26 = 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
NatGas = 41%
Nuclear = 19%
Coal = 17%
Hydro = 5%
Wind = 12%
Solar = 6%
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1363. Resi = $0.1724
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 9:30AM, EST, 3-9-26
CAISO = -$10 - $13
ERCOT = -$65 - $23
MISO = $21 - $27
PJM = -$58 - $71
NYISO = $31 - $51
ISONE = $51 - $53
CALIFORNIA POWER GEN SUPPLY @ 9:30AM, EST, 3-9-26
NG 23%, RE 13%, Hydro 14%, Imports 21%, Battery 18%, Nuke 10%.
THE BOTTOM LINE
There is a strong fear premium being pushed w/the conflict in the Middle East. LNG exports are at near capacity. We can't export more than we already are. Buy the falling Basis now and wait for NYMEX to correct downward. It will correct downward barring any delivery/productions disruptions.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions, 310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie