THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 3-6-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Oil prices are up over $10.00 this AM, expected to climb further.
- NYMEX prices start today up, nearly $0.25 from yesterday's close.
- LNG exports continue to increase near full capacity with more terminals coming online in Q2.
- Supply/Storage balances remain tight, expected to loosen up in 2 weeks as demand falls below normal due to warmer weather.
- Global gas risk premiums are back in play today due to continued disruption to the Strait of Hormuz.
- Europe is seeing their inventories fall faster than usual, and now with limited options due to the ME conflict, prices are increasing.
- Power prices follow natgas prices, so there's your direction.
- Prices should correct downward or at the very least, stabilize, once we see storage injections begin.
NYMEX
Apr '26 – Open = $3.02, High = $3.14, Low = $2.95, Current = $3.10 +$0.26 from 1 week ago -$1.42 from 1 year ago +$1.45 from 2 years ago 50-day avg = $3.71 20-day avg = $3.06 9-day avg = $2.93
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.20 (R2) = $3.30 PIVOT = $2.99 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.90 (S2) = $2.75
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
12 months (April '26 Start) = $3.73 Summer '26 (April – Oct) = $3.31 Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.31 Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.43 Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.37 Calendar '27 = $3.78 Calendar '28 = $4.58 Calendar '29 = $3.61 Calendar '30 = $3.61
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
2026 = $5.03 2025 = $3.45 2024 = $2.26 2023 = $2.73 2022 = $6.64 2021 = $3.84 2020 = $2.07 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $2.857 2025 avg = $3.568.
2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.935 2025 avg = $3.891.
2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.051 2025 avg = $3.103.
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 19.1Bcf, -2.3% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.9Bcf.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 6.5Bcf.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 113.1Bcf, +5.6% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 120.1Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 112.0Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Storms continue from Texas to the Great Lakes.
10 Day = Bearish 8-14 Day = Bearish 3-4 Week = Even
March – May = Bullish April – June = Bullish May – June = Bullish
NE/New England = Cool to mild with isolated rain. 20s-40s. SE/Gulf = Very warm with increasing cloud coverage and rain. 60s-80s. TX/S. Plains = Warm w/severe storms and tornado risks increasing. 30s-90s. Mid-Con = Warm surge with plenty of precipitation.50s-80s. Rockies/N. Plains = Cool with storms moving east. 20s-40s. Pac NW/West = Cooler to the north with rain, hotter to the south. 40s-70s.
RIG COUNT
as of 2-27-26: Total = 550, -1 w/w. Oil @ 407 rigs, -2 w/w. Natural Gas @ 134 rigs, +1 w/w. Miscellaneous @ 9 rigs, no change w/w. Rig count 1 year ago = 593.
STORAGE
3-5-26 Estimate = -125Bcf. Actual = -132Bcf Last year = -106Bcf. 5-yr avg = -96Bcf. +115Bcf compared to this time last year. -43Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,929Bcf. At 1,886Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range. Storage forecasted avg for 3-31-26 = 1.90Tcf. Storage forecasted avg for 10-31-26 = 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
NatGas = 40% Nuclear = 19% Coal = 16% Hydro = 7% Wind = 13% Solar = 5%
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1363. Resi = $0.1724
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 10:00AM, EST, 3-6-26
CAISO = -$35 - $14 ERCOT = -$60 - $7 MISO = $31 - $346 PJM = -$46 - $45 NYISO = $56 - $69 ISONE = $58 - $60
CALIFORNIA POWER GEN SUPPLY @ 10:00AM, EST, 3-6-26
NG 6%, RE 47%, Hydro 11%, Imports 22%, Battery 5%, Nuke 9%.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Some delivery points are posting negative prices. Others are falling below historical averages. We think NYMEX could fall further in 2 weeks if early storage injections take place. Buy Basis now and wait for NYMEX to fall, then buy NYMEX separately. If your trader/supplier isn't notifying you/offering you that option, they're weak.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions, 310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie