THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 3-5-26
March 5, 2026 by Sean Dookie
THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 3-5-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
• Oil prices are up over $2.00 this AM, expected to remain bullish. • Prices may be taking a pause in the rally as rumors surface of Iran considering a rethink. • QatarEnergy LNG and Hormuz remain closed. • NYMEX prices started today up a few cents while waiting for today's storage report that came in above expectations. • Natgas demand could plunge by 10Bcf next week as warm weather fills the US only to possibly rebound by 20Bcf the following week as cooler patterns return, then warm again. • EIA increased the 2026 average AGAIN to $4.31. • W&S expected to deliver 26% of power generation in 2026. • Golden Pass LNG expected to begin production mid-2026. • Another factor to watch is to gauge prices - the natgas fund, UNG.
NYMEX
Apr '26 – Open = $2.93, High = $3.00, Low = $2.93, Current = $2.95
+$0.15 from 1 week ago -$1.57 from 1 year ago +$1.30 from 2 years ago
50-day avg = $3.74 20-day avg = $3.09 9-day avg = $2.94
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.00 (R2) = $3.25 PIVOT = $2.90 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.85 (S2) = $2.70
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
12 months (April '26 Start) = $3.75 Summer '26 (April – Oct) = $3.39 Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.32 Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.41 Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.34 Calendar '27 = $3.77 Calendar '28 = $4.54 Calendar '29 = $3.60 Calendar '30 = $3.59
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
2026 = $6.07 2025 = $3.45 2024 = $2.26 2023 = $2.73 2022 = $6.64 2021 = $3.84 2020 = $2.07 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through Feb '26) = $3.33 2025 avg = $3.568.
2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through Feb '26) = $4.64 2025 avg = $3.891.
2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through Feb '26) = $3.78 2025 avg = $3.103.
MARKET DATA
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 19.3Bcf, -1.5% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.8Bcf.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 5.4Bcf.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 112.9Bcf, +6.0% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 113.2Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 116.4Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Heavy rain/storms from St. Louis to NYC.
10 Day = Bearish 8-14 Day = Bearish 3-4 Week = Even
March – May = Bullish April – June = Bullish May – June = Bullish
NE/New England = Cool & breezy. 10s-40s. Mid-Con = Cool with some sun. 30s-60s. SE/Gulf = Warm with increasing humid. 60s-80s. TX/S. Plains = Severe storms continue in this region. 60s-90s. Rockies/N. Plains = Milder, heavy wind, storms moving in. 20s-60s. Pac NW/West = Mild with rain to the north as per usual. 40s-70s.
RIG COUNT
as of 2-27-26:
Total = 550, -1 w/w. Oil @ 407 rigs, -2 w/w. Natural Gas @ 134 rigs, +1 w/w. Miscellaneous @ 9 rigs, no change w/w. Rig count 1 year ago = 593.
STORAGE
3-5-26 Estimate = -125Bcf. Actual = -132Bcf Last year = -106Bcf. 5-yr avg = -96Bcf. +115Bcf compared to this time last year. -43Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,929Bcf. At 1,886Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range. Storage forecasted avg for 3-31-26 = 1.90Tcf. Storage forecasted avg for 10-31-26 = 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
NatGas = 40% Nuclear = 18% Coal = 16% Hydro = 7% Wind = 10% Solar = 6%
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1363. Resi = $0.1724
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 10:30AM, EST, 3-5-26
CAISO = -$10 - $22 ERCOT = -$30 - $67 MISO = $25 - $40 PJM = -$80 - $82 NYISO = $38 - $41 ISONE = $32 - $35
CALIFORNIA POWER GEN SUPPLY @ 10:30AM, EST, 3-5-26
NG 6%, RE 54%, Hydro 9%, Imports 17%, Battery 4%, Nuke 9%.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Weather patterns are all over the place right now with shifts coming quickly and often. We believe there could be some exaggerated price movement, up and down, over the next few weeks as many traders remain short sighted.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions, 310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie