THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 3-30-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Crude and Brent are both up as Middle East tensions increase with "prolonged disruption risk" now being priced in.
- Oil is up roughly 60% month-to-date.
- NYMEX natgas prices, as we expected, are falling, down as much as $0.20 before today's opening bell.
- Downward pressure coming from warm weather eliminating HDDs.
- High storage levels are expected to increase more than normal over the next 6 weeks.
- Upward pressure is coming from LNG exports, but this is financial only as exports are at capacity.
- The war premium is muted domestically as we enjoy oversupply.
- Don't buy that fear premium just yet.
NYMEX
May '26 – Open = $3.05, High = $3.15, Low = $2.85, Current = $2.88
- -$0.06 from 1 week ago
- -$1.34 from 1 year ago
- +$0.99 from 2 years ago
- 50-day avg = $3.50
- 20-day avg = $3.05
- 9-day avg = $3.01
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.00 (R2) = $3.10 PIVOT = $2.85 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.75 (S2) = $2.60
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (May '26 Start) = $3.60
- Summer '26 (May – Oct) = $3.11
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.32
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.43
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.48
- Calendar '27 = $3.89
- Calendar '28 = $3.84
- Calendar '29 = $3.69
- Calendar '30 = $3.63
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
- 2026 = $5.03
- 2025 = $3.45
- 2024 = $2.26
- 2023 = $2.73
- 2022 = $6.64
- 2021 = $3.84
- 2020 = $2.07
- 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $2.857
- 2025 avg = $3.568
- 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.935
- 2025 avg = $3.891
- 2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.051
- 2025 avg = $3.103
Market Data
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 19.9Bcf, +0.5% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.8Bcf.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 7.2Bcf.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 113.5Bcf, +5.2% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 120.4Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 114.9Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Nice warm up and clear skies for most of the US.
- 10 Day = Bearish
- 8-14 Day = Bearish
- 3-4 Week = Bearish
- May – July = Bullish
- June – Aug = Bullish
- July – Sep = Bearish
Regional Forecasts:
- NE/New England = Warmer with showers moving in. Light HDDs. 60s-40s.
- Mid-Atlantic = Limited DDs either direction. 70s-50s.
- SE/Gulf = Some rain, seasonable to warm. 80s-60s.
- Texas/S. Plains = Slightly above normal CDDs by afternoon. 80s-60s.
- West/SW = Back to near normal, neutral demand load. 90s-50s.
- Pac NW/N. Plains = Cooler with some showers. 50s-10s.
- Midwest/Great Lakes = Starting warm, ending cooler and breezy. 80s-30s.
RIG COUNT as of 3-27-26
- Total = 543, -9 w/w.
- Oil @ 409 rigs, -5 w/w.
- Natural Gas @ 127 rigs, -4 w/w.
- Miscellaneous @ 7 rigs, no change w/w.
- Rig count 1 year ago = 592.
STORAGE
4-2-26 Estimate = -TBD. Actual = TBD
- Last year = +16Bcf
- 5-yr avg = +17Bcf
- +90Bcf compared to this time last year
- +14Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,815Bcf
- At 1,829Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range
- Storage forecasts: 3-31-26 @ 1.85Tcf. 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
- NatGas = 41%
- Nuclear = 19%
- Coal = 17%
- Hydro = 6%
- Wind = 10%
- Solar = 8% (peaks higher intraday)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1364. Resi = $0.1745
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 10:0AM, EST, 3-30-26
- CAISO = $54 - $60
- ERCOT = -$27 - $22
- MISO = $22 - $26
- PJM = -$83 - $55
- NYISO = -$10 - $25
- ISONE = $16 - $18
CRUDE
- 2026 = $86.07
- 2027 = $73.49
- 2028 = $70.30
- 2029 = $68.12
THE BOTTOM LINE
Basis is falling. NYMEX is falling. We expect NYMEX to fall a little further. Basis gets more regional when picking directions. It's a good time to buy. Don't sleep on this because it will not last forever.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions
310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com
X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie