THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 3-27-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Both Crude and Brent fell overnight only to start this morning up a few percent each.
- Crude sitting around $97 and Brent moving above $104.
- NYMEX natgas prices are up this morning as much as $0.15 from yesterday's close after enjoying a 3-week low.
- The larger than expected storage withdrawal seems to be the lead reason.
- There could be some short covering going into the weekend.
- International demand and growing LNG exports from an increasing number of NA based terminals will become a greater factor/bull, especially as geopolitical tensions overseas increase.
- U.S. fundamentals remain bearish to neutral if nothing changes.
- This is a trader's market, not a trend market – don't buy the hype.
NYMEX
Apr '26 – Open = $2.97, High = $3.12, Low = $2.96, Current = $3.07
- -$0.02 from 1 week ago
- -$1.15 from 1 year ago
- +$1.31 from 2 years ago
- 50-day avg = $3.50
- 20-day avg = $3.04
- 9-day avg = $3.01
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.05 (R2) = $3.15 PIVOT = $2.95 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.85 (S2) = $2.70
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (April '26 Start) = $3.70
- Summer '26 (April – Oct) = $3.20
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.37
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.48
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.52
- Calendar '27 = $3.85
- Calendar '28 = $4.74
- Calendar '29 = $3.65
- Calendar '30 = $3.65
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
- 2026 = $5.03
- 2025 = $3.45
- 2024 = $2.26
- 2023 = $2.73
- 2022 = $6.64
- 2021 = $3.84
- 2020 = $2.07
- 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $2.857
- 2025 avg = $3.568
- 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.935
- 2025 avg = $3.891
- 2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.051
- 2025 avg = $3.103
MARKET DATA
- LNG EXPORTS Est. = 20.1Bcf, +2.4% w/w
- MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.5Bcf
- CANADIAN IMPORTS = 7.0Bcf
- DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 113.2Bcf, +4.8% y/y
- SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 120.0Bcf
- DEMAND – Today's Est.= 116.1Bcf
- 7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Clear skies for almost everyone.
- 10 Day = Bearish
- 8-14 Day = Bearish
- 3-4 Week = Bearish
- April – June = Bullish
- May – July = Bullish
- June – Aug = Bullish
Regional Weather
- NE/New England = Cooler temps thru the weekend. 50s-10s.
- Mid-Atlantic = CDDs in effect today before cooling tomorrow. 80s-40s.
- SE/Gulf = CDDs in effect today but gone by Sunday. 80s-50s.
- Texas/S. Plains = Cooler to the west, hot to the east. 90s-30s.
- West/SW = CDDs lessening in CA, still hot in AZ. 100s-50s.
- Pac NW/N. Plains = Dry and mild! Go outside without a raincoat! 60s-10s.
- Mid-Con = Cooling with HDDs moderate. 50s-20s.
RIG COUNT as of 3-20-26
- Total = 552, -1 w/w
- Oil @ 414 rigs, +2 w/w
- Natural Gas @ 131 rigs, -2 w/w
- Miscellaneous @ 7 rigs, -1 w/w
- Rig count 1 year ago = 593
STORAGE – 3-26-26
- Estimate = -44Bcf
- Actual = -54Bcf
- Last year = +33Bcf
- 5-yr avg = -21Bcf
- +90Bcf compared to this time last year
- +14Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,815Bcf
- At 1,829Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range
- Storage forecasts: 3-31-26 @ 1.85Tcf. 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
- NatGas = 43%
- Nuclear = 20%
- Coal = 14%
- Hydro = 5%
- Wind = 12%
- Solar = 8% (peaks higher intraday)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1364. Resi = $0.1745
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 10:0AM, EST, 3-27-26
- CAISO = -$17 - $40
- ERCOT = -$21 - $15
- MISO = $20 - $23
- PJM = -$50 - $276
- NYISO = $21 - $23
- ISONE = -$20 - $0
CRUDE
- 2026 = $83.50
- 2027 = $72.70
- 2028 = $69.71
- 2029 = $68.46
THE BOTTOM LINE
Starting to get a little worried about SoCal pricing. Prices are cheap right now but with Costa Azul opening in July, we expect far more volatility coming to SoCal prices second half of 2026. We want to impress upon everyone that the point of buying fixed prices is to protect you from violent prices spikes, not to beat the market. If you want to gamble, go bet the ponies.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions, 310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie